Merz is losing support in his own party - budget game as a test

In a democracy, power erodes slowly at first, until its loss eventually becomes a self-perpetuating event that can hardly be stopped. And it is not uncommon for the transition between the two phases to begin with one's own people turning away. If I interpret the research of my Berlin colleagues correctly, the Chancellor is at this point.

The fact that there are doubts about Friedrich Merz in the Union has been apparent for weeks. What my colleagues Daniel Delhaes and Jan Hildebrand have now researched has a new quality: there is, for example, the middle class parliamentary group of the Union faction. Not only the center of power for the CDU and CSU in the Bundestag, but also the Chancellor's fan base. But when the district board returned from dinner at Merz's on Wednesday, one of the participants said:

"There is the CDU deputy general secretary, who was asked by the Chancellor to vacate her post, but simply carries on. There are the Union Prime Ministers, who have been staying away from the Chancellor for days. And there are the Union's financial politicians in the Bundestag: 20 MPs apparently consider the current federal budget to be incapable of approval. Since the coalition only has a twelve-vote majority, there is a serious danger here: if the budget fails, the Chancellor fails."