MIDEM “Polarization Barometer”: Support for Ukraine polarizes Germans like no other topic

New study on social division Aid to Ukraine polarizes Germans like no other topic

For a long time, no topic excited people in Germany as much as immigration. But now, according to a new survey, opinions appear to be drifting even further apart when it comes to support for Ukraine.

The question of the attitude towards supporting Ukraine in its defensive fight against Russia's war of aggression is currently more explosive than any other topic in the political discourse in Germany. This is shown by the current “polarization barometer” from the Mercator Forum for Migration and Democracy (MIDEM) at the Technical University of Dresden.

The attitude towards aid to Ukraine has replaced immigration as the most emotionally charged topic, the researchers led by MIDEM director Hans Vorländer found.

According to the information, around 54 percent of the population want Germany to continue supporting Ukraine, while almost 29 percent would like rapprochement with Russia. The fact that the differences have increased can be seen from the fact that the number of respondents who chose the extreme value in favor of Russia on a scale from zero to ten increased from 13.7 percent to 17.3 percent compared to the previous survey.

The scale ranged from “Germany should continue to support Ukraine and distance itself more from Russia” to “Germany should no longer support Ukraine and instead approach Russia.” Around 17 percent of those surveyed did not lean towards any position or were not confident of making a judgment on this issue.

The study, which is representative of the population aged 18 and over, is based on a survey of 2,785 people in March this year by the opinion research institute YouGov. Among other things, questions were asked about attitudes towards integration, redistribution and climate protection. A general increase in polarization compared to 2025 was not found.

In addition to ideological polarization, the researchers were also interested in so-called affective polarization. The aim was to answer the question: "Which groups have a greater tendency and which have a lesser tendency to treat people with different opinions with intolerance and rejection?"

Men reject those who think differently more than women

Supporters of the AfD and the Greens have the greatest tendency to negatively evaluate people with different opinions. “Both groups show significantly stronger affective polarization potential than people who are close to parties such as the CDU/CSU, SPD or Left,” say the authors.

On average, men are more emotionally polarized than women. People over the age of 70 and those with a low level of education also showed an above-average tendency to react negatively to people who hold a position that differs from their own opinion.

Immigration remains a relevant topic

According to the authors, little has changed in the fact that a majority of Germans are in favor of restrictions on immigration. Around two thirds of Germans are in favor of further restricting the “opportunities for foreigners to immigrate”. Although a majority still supports the immigration of skilled workers, their share has declined sharply.

From the participants' answers, the scientists can also tend to see how united or divided the supporters of certain parties are on certain political issues. Accordingly, AfD supporters are the most internally polarized group when it comes to climate protection - ahead of BSW, FDP and CDU. When asked about immigration in general, however, they are the most homogeneous group.