The US and Iran avoid all-out conflict, but tensions in Hormuz are increasing

Neither the US nor Iran want an all-out conflict, but military and economic pressure and the confrontation at Hormuz are making the standoff increasingly difficult to maintain.

A month of relative peace between Iran and the United States ended this week when the two sides resumed fighting, pushing regional tensions back to a situation where they could explode at any time after weeks of quiet.

The first clash took place from the night of August 30 to the morning of August 31, when the US attacked Iran's missile launchers on Larak Island, and Tehran announced that it had launched missiles and UAVs at US military targets in Jordan and the United Arab Emirates (UAE).

On September 1, the US military continued to strike Iranian targets. The action caused Tehran to respond with attacks on Jordan, Bahrain and Kuwait, despite warnings from President Donald Trump that the US would subject Iran to "a much more painful blow".

On September 5, Iranian news agency Tasnim reported that an oil tanker was hit by four US missiles in the anchorage area off Kharg island and the sailors were being evacuated.

The attacks between the two sides are currently only limited, different from the fierce attacks that occurred more than a month ago. According to experts, this shows that neither the US nor Iran want to return to total war.

"Both sides mainly focus on attacking military targets, instead of civilian or energy infrastructure," Danny Citrinowicz, former head of the Iran affairs section of Israeli Military Intelligence, posted on X.

"No side wants to return to total war," said Hamidreza Azizi, senior analyst on Iran at the International Crisis Group (ICG).

However, the situation is still considered dangerous, because just one miscalculation can drag both sides back into full-blown conflict. Expert Azizi said that Iran's obstruction of ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz and US economic pressure on Iran are making the situation increasingly precarious.

The US President announced that he is not interested in negotiating with Iran. "I don't care if they sign an agreement with them that is worthless," Mr. Trump said.

But behind the tough statements, Americans are clearly feeling the cost of war, when surveys show that the majority of the country's people oppose the conflict, which is said to have cost Washington about 40 billion USD as of July.

A survey by the University of Massachusetts (UMass) Amherst released on August 31 showed that more than two-thirds of Americans polled were dissatisfied with the way Mr. Trump handled the war. His overall approval rating has also dropped to 32%.

The war harmed America

The Trump administration believes the US has won in the Strait of Hormuz. On September 1, the US military announced that it had escorted 40 commercial ships carrying 18 million barrels of oil through this maritime route, the highest level since the war began.

But that doesn't help improve the overall situation. Although world oil prices decreased slightly on September 3, prices generally remained at a high level. The average gasoline price in the US is 4.14 USD per gallon (about 3.7 liters), higher than 3.19 USD in the same period last year, according to the American Automobile Association (AAA).

Meanwhile, the amount of oil in the US Strategic Reserve has dropped sharply in recent months, to the lowest level since 1983, as the Trump administration continuously released storage to minimize the impact of the conflict.

US Vice President J.D. Vance on September 3 could not provide a roadmap for ending hostilities nor a timeline for when gas prices could fall to pre-war levels. Instead, he said ending the conflict depends on Iran.

Militarily, the US is wasting its arsenal and deploying expensive military assets. Last month, multiple sources told CNN that the US military had used nearly 80% of the interceptors of a key missile defense system. According to two sources with knowledge of the arsenal, compared to before the war, the US has used nearly 80% of THAAD missiles and about half of Patriot interceptor missiles.

Risk of escalation

Iran's already troubled economy is facing serious challenges. Governor of the Central Bank of Iran Abdolnaser Hemmati recently warned about the economic pressures the country must endure.

"We are suffering from four to five giant challenges at the same time, from maximum sanctions, blockades, oil export disruptions to budget imbalances. Each factor is a heavy blow to the economy," he said. "The leader of a neighboring country once admitted to me that if they suffered just one-fifth of what Iran is experiencing, their government would have collapsed."

According to Iranian state media, inflation has reached "alarming" levels, leaving many working families unable to afford essential foods. Annual inflation, calculated over the 12-month period through July, was at 66%, according to ILNA news agency.

Arash Azizi, an Iran expert in the US, said Iran's economy has suffered heavy damage, but the country's leaders "understand that surrendering to the US could cause the government to collapse".

Therefore, Iran may choose to escalate tensions with the United States, based on the calculation that Washington cannot maintain economic pressure indefinitely and is required to break this deadlock.

While Washington seems to be trying to avoid escalating the conflict and localizing the confrontation within the economic sphere, Iran is pursuing a completely opposite strategy, according to Citrinowicz.

"Iran will continue to find ways to disrupt oil tanker traffic and challenge US efforts to establish a new reality in the Strait of Hormuz," this expert said.

Iran has repeatedly stated that it is ready to return to the negotiating table if Washington complies with the commitments in the memorandum signed by both sides in June. "I confirm that if the US re-implements the commitments under the above memorandum, the Islamic Republic of Iran will immediately do the same," Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian said on September 2.

However, Mr. Trump said he was satisfied with the current situation. "I am not trying to force Iran to sit at the negotiating table. I like the current position much better, when the US almost completely controls the Strait of Hormuz and the Iranian economy is completely collapsing," he wrote on Truth Social on the evening of September 2, after Iran responded to US air strikes.

Citrinowicz said that although both the US and Iran clearly understand the risks of an uncontrolled escalation, the two sides still gradually increase tensions. "The problem is that this balance is difficult to maintain," he warned.