Hardly any other federal politician was discussed as much and as controversially after the state elections as Chancellor Friedrich Merz. Also striking is how much effort the CDU top staff is putting into downplaying the flaring discussion about the future of the CDU party leader. True to the motto: "Please move on, there's nothing to see here."
“There is no discussion here”
In the ranking of politician satisfaction, the Chancellor comes in far behind at 13 percent. Shortly after the polls closed, Franziska Hoppermann, the new CDU general secretary in the Konrad-Adenauer-Haus, had to make it clear about the future of Friedrich Merz as Chancellor: "No. No discussion is starting here." Head of the Chancellery Nina Warken and the leader of the CDU/CSU parliamentary group, Thorsten Frei, also supported the Chancellor.
“It would be the wrong thing if we asked personnel questions,” said Warken. And parliamentary group leader Frei says, “It is very important that we are stable and remain stable.” He refers to the upcoming local elections in Lower Saxony next weekend. The result for the CDU is likely to be completely different there. Frei therefore warns against drawing false conclusions from the Saxony-Anhalt election.
It was Friedrich Merz who once said in his application speech for party leadership that he wanted to halve the AfD's numbers. Now, of all things, his CDU in Saxony-Anhalt has fewer than half of the state parliament mandates than before. A circumstance that the AfD is taking advantage of and driving the Union further into a corner. AfD top candidate Ulrich Siegmund described the chancellor, who was unpopular according to surveys, as the best campaign helper for the AfD.
First demands for personnel consequences
It's a game for time. Because in two weeks new parliaments will be elected in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania and Berlin. The AfD - almost intoxicated by its success in Saxony-Anhalt - also wants to appoint the Prime Minister in Schwerin and the Governing Mayor in Berlin - according to the surveys, the prospects for this are lower than in Saxony-Anhalt. The governing parties CDU and SPD are hoping to do better there.
The two SPD party leaders Bärbel Bas and Lars Klingbeil are also likely to hope for this. Even before the Saxony-Anhalt election, their chairs were shaking. There was even discussion of a special party conference. In Schleswig-Holstein, where elections will take place next year, SPD state leader Ulf Kampf is now calling for personnel consequences at the federal level.
In the SPD it is said behind closed doors: Who should do it? The bigger problem is the programmatic profile of the SPD. The analysis by Hubertus Heil, former SPD labor minister and a strong voice in his party: "Many people no longer have a clear picture of what the SPD stands for. We cannot stand after the election and sugarcoat the result or pray for health or drink."
The Union and the SPD are struggling for words
For the governing parties, the election result is a shock and an announcement. The Union and the SPD are struggling for words and even more so for answers to this election result. Because the AfD makes it unmistakably clear: Saxony-Anhalt is just the beginning.
“The CDU/CSU will never be able to win a federal election again,” says AfD federal spokeswoman Alice Weidel, confident of victory, and describes the Union’s dilemma. The firewall against the AfD and the incompatibility with the Left make it practically impossible for the CDU to form a government given the majority in Saxony-Anhalt - and force the party into strategic questions of faith.
Worry about defectors
AfD federal spokesman Tino Chrupalla has been repeating his formulation since Sunday evening that “the firewall has been voted out”. CDU General Secretary Hoppermann emphasizes: The CDU is standing. There will be no cooperation with the AfD.
Nevertheless, some people are worried about defections to the AfD. That would tear the CDU apart, it is said in many corners of Berlin. The concern arises from the knowledge that the Saxony-Anhalt CDU regional association is quite self-confident and that the federal party cannot simply “take action” internally. On top of that, interference from the Konrad Adenauer House is sensitive. Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer intervened in 2020 after the state elections in Thuringia in 2020 and had to relinquish the party leadership shortly afterwards.
Finding sustainable government majorities has recently become even more difficult for the Union in East Germany. In Saxony, the CDU governs together with the SPD in a minority government with changing majorities, in Thuringia with the SPD and former members of the BSW. With the entry of Sahra Wagenknecht's BSW into the Magdeburg state parliament, a party that seemed to have almost disappeared in federal politics has also stabilized.
“Voters want a radical policy change”
"We see that the East will probably become the trendsetter for coalitions that we will also have in the West in the future and perhaps also at the national level," analyzes political scientist Andrea Römmele from the Hertie School of Governance. "Voters want a radical policy change."
But what is the federal government doing with it now? Continue as before or will you change your course of reform?
Will the “total work of art” be unraveled?
The possible elimination of the pension without deductions after 45 years of contributions caused controversy during the election campaign. There now seems to be movement on pension reform. “We will now have to discuss this in the coalition,” said Bärbel Bas, SPD party leader and labor minister. Social reforms should not be made against the people.
Just weeks ago, when presenting the results of the pension commission, the Union and the SPD emphasized that it was a “total work of art” that should under no circumstances be untied. Whether this will last is more questionable than ever.
A 180-degree turnaround in reform plans still seems unlikely. Instead, Chancellor Warken wants to pick up the pace. "So that people feel that something is changing." Maybe a few changes here and there, but otherwise staying the course seems to be the motto.
Merz wants to communicate better
Giving up is not an option. Chancellor Friedrich Merz emphasized this when he appeared in front of the cameras at midday after the CDU committee meetings. This is an election result with which one cannot move on to the agenda, says Merz. “The whole thing will of course have consequences.” He doesn't say when or how.
More thoughtfully and more quietly than usual, Merz admits that many people do not follow him and his thoughts, cannot follow him or do not want to follow him. He wants to try to do it differently and do it better in the next few weeks and months. But that doesn't change his basic beliefs. What I mean is: the reform course remains the same. The Chancellor wants to communicate it better in the future.
