NFL Draft 2027 quarterback prospects face shock-level decisions on returning to college

One year ago, the 2027 quarterback class in the NFL Draft was seen as a general can't-miss. Now? The picture looks much blurrier after inconsistent starts and poor performance across the sport.

On Monday, CBS Sports' Mike Renner released his newest mock draft -- and it skipped over some big names. Specifically, Renner pointed to Dante Moore, Julian Sayin, CJ Carr and LaNorris Sellers as names he kept off the list as he believed they would return to school.

Needless to say, those four figures returning would be a major dent in the quality of the draft class, but maybe it shouldn't be a surprise. We're reaching a moment in college football where returning to school and improving your craft can be a financially prudent decision, especially with the amount of money on the table. Adding to the complication, many players were granted a fifth year of eligibility over the offseason, giving them even more opportunity.

With that in mind, we're going through and evaluating just how shocking it would be to see a few of the top quarterback draft prospects return to school. We're including the four that Renner identified in his mock draft, along with a few other top prospects with years remaining.

A 1 on our shock meter means it would be no surprise if this player returned to school. A 10 means turning down the draft would be stunning.

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Chip Patterson

Dante Moore, Oregon

Plenty of assumptions were made about Moore after a terrifying head injury against USC, but thankfully, there were no long-term consequences. While head injuries can be fickle, Moore should be back after a few games and healthy long before the postseason and NFL Draft cycle come into play.

Thinking a little conservatively about Moore's status makes sense, but a return to school would be complicated for a multitude of reasons. For one, Moore -- frankly -- has not made a notable jump with another offseason of work. He should still remain a first-round prospect, but another year of similar tape would start to lead to some prospect fatigue.

The other part? Oregon has another quarterback waiting in the wings in fellow former five-star Dylan Raiola. The Nebraska transfer played very well in his absence, throwing for 289 yards and two touchdowns on 11.6 yards per attempt. Moore would put the Oregon staff in an uncomfortable position if he decided to come back. It's in everyone's best interest that he declares. Shock level if they return: 10/10

Julian Sayin, Ohio State

Sayin is one of the toughest quarterbacks to evaluate in college football because there's the whole Jeremiah Smith dynamic to consider. The Carlsbad, California, native ranks among the most efficient quarterbacks in college football history, completing 75% of his passes and throwing 43 touchdowns with nine interceptions.

There's actually a reasonable case that Sayin could improve his stock by proving that he's not only a Jeremiah merchant and can go through reads and quarterback at a high level. Of course… there's always the possibility that he is a Jeremiah merchant, and his production (and draft stock) falls off a cliff when he's gone. Does Sayin want to find out? Shock level if they return: 5/10

CJ Carr, Notre Dame

Carr came into the year as one of the bright stars in college football and has lived up to expectations from the jump. The redshirt sophomore is completing 70% of his passes for 963 yards and nine touchdowns during an outstanding start.

From a prospect perspective, it doesn't feel like there's much left for Carr to accomplish. He's efficient, decisive and productive with an NFL-ready frame. Renner notes that he believes Carr has a level of mastery that he can still reach at Notre Dame before going top-five, but we'll see by December if that's necessary.

There's always the chance that he simply loves being the quarterback at Notre Dame, though, and the Irish can certainly make it worth his while to stay. Something tells us the grandson of Lloyd Carr can probably afford to make a decision based on want rather than finances alone. Shock level if they return: 7/10

LaNorris Sellers, South Carolina

There are many cases of players needlessly transferring, thereby ruining their NFL Draft stock. Unfortunately, Sellers is the reverse, a quarterback who probably made a mistake by being too loyal to a failing coach and program. His November 2024 was the stuff of legend, but he completed only 56% of his passes with nine touchdowns and nine interceptions in six straight games against Power Four competition -- all losses.

Next season, South Carolina will almost certainly have a new coaching staff. Sellers put in his time with the Gamecocks, and it's time for him to find a different situation that can actually develop him in any meaningful way. Shock level if they return: 2/10

Arch Manning, Texas

The highs for Manning are so unbelievably high, but consistency remains elusive for the most famous name in the sport. After completing only 50% of his passes against UTSA, Manning was efficient in Knoxville, completing 74% and generally making good decisions. The highs are high enough that Manning is probably still a lock for the top five, but scouts are still waiting on growth.

The Longhorns invested heavily in a culmination roster in 2026 and returning would probably mean playing without Cam Coleman, Trevor Goosby or Colin Simmons. There's little chance Texas will be set up for more success in 2027. At the same time, the Mannings are notoriously patient. If they think Manning can grow more in college, they might push him to do so. Shock level if they return: 8/10

Darian Mensah, Miami

Mensah is the most efficient quarterback in the sport by orders of magnitude, completing an otherworldly 89% of his passes through four games. A road performance against Wake Forest has aged well after the Demon Deacons stunned Louisville, and Mensah has a whole season of tape from a Duke ACC title season under his belt.

That said, we won't really know much about Mensah's true NFL pedigree until Nov. 7 against No. 3 Notre Dame. It's worth noting, too, that Mensah has played for three schools in the last three years -- Tulane, Duke and Miami. He's always done what's best for his career financially, even when it's unpopular.

If Mensah is projected as a high first-round pick (which feels likely), he's gone. Shock level if they return: 8/10

Drew Mestemaker, Oklahoma State

Mestemaker is one of the quickest risers in college football after transferring from North Texas to Oklahoma State with coach Eric Morris. He led a stunning upset over Oregon in Week 2 and followed it up with 389 yards against West Virginia to enter the rankings for the first time since 2023.

There are two dynamics that could make a return to Oklahoma State possible. First, Mestemaker just hasn't played that much football. As we reported last season, the Austin, Texas, native never started a varsity game in high school. Getting more comfortable with the top competition could better prepare him. Additionally, star running back Caleb Hawkins is a sophomore. Receiver Wyatt Young is a junior. This group could easily crash the playoff with another year of growth. Shock level if they return: 3/10

Sam Leavitt, LSU

Leavitt is a difficult quarterback to evaluate. For one, he's constantly injured. He missed several games at Arizona State last season and is playing through a hamstring issue in Baton Rouge. His best years came next to first-round pick Jordyn Tyson.

At the same time, Leavitt's performance at LSU has also been inconsistent. Playing behind a middling offensive line, Leavitt has been forced to scramble and play out of structure. Through four games, he's thrown five touchdowns and six interceptions.