NFL survivor pool picks, knockout strategy, advice for Week 10, 2026: Fade the Green Bay Packers

The Patriots were one of the few teams to be upset in Week 9 when the Packers posted a 45-27 win at New England. The Patriots entered as 3-point favorites over Green Bay. Despite many players finding themselves out of the running in their respective pools, Survivor Revival pools do give players a second chance. There are four teams on their bye, so Week 10 will have only 14 games.

The two of the widest spreads this week are the Jacksonville Jaguars (-10.5) over the Tennessee Titans and the Los Angeles Rams (-9.5) over the Arizona Cardinals. The Jaguars have won seven of the past eight meetings with Tennessee, including four in a row. The Rams, meanwhile, have won seven of the past 10 meetings with the Cardinals, but Arizona will have a new quarterback under center, while L.A. will be without Puka Nacua (knee). Also, both the Jags and Rams are on the road in these contests. Who should you trust on this challenging NFL survivor slate?

Before making any Week 10 NFL survivor pool picks or survivor revival predictions, see which team the red-hot SportsLine Projection Model just went all-in on.

The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up more than $5,000 for $100 players on betting sites on top-rated NFL picks since its inception. The model entered Week 10 of the 2026 NFL season on a 62-52 run on top-rated picks dating back to 2024. Anybody following its picks at NFL betting sites could have seen strong returns.

Now, it has turned its attention to the Week 10 NFL schedule and locked in its Week 10 survivor pool pick. You can only see who the model is backing this week at SportsLine.

Top Week 10 NFL survivor pool predictions

In Week 10 of the 2026 NFL season, the model is not confident in the 6-3 Green Bay Packers, who are 3.5-point and -170 money-line favorites at the best betting apps against the Minnesota Vikings at Lambeau Field in Green Bay, Wis., on Sunday at 1 p.m. ET. The Packers are coming off a 45-27 win at New England, but have already lost to the Vikings earlier this year. That was a 39-22 drubbing at Minnesota on Sept. 13. Green Bay has had trouble against Minnesota, with the Vikings winning four of the last five meetings, and the Pack will be without Josh Jacobs (finger) for a few weeks.

Green Bay is 3-1 at home this season, and is led by veteran quarterback Jordan Love. Despite the Packers leading the league in dropped passes, Love has completed 63% of his passes for 2,618 yards and 19 touchdowns with six interceptions. Among his top targets are wide receivers Christian Watson and Matthew Golden. Watson has 49 receptions for 879 yards and seven touchdowns, while Golden has 53 catches for 783 yards and five scores.

Minnesota, meanwhile, is led by wide receiver Justin Jefferson. In 17 games last season, Jefferson caught 84 passes for 1,048 yards and two touchdowns. He has registered at least 1,000 receiving yards in each of his previous six seasons. He should benefit from the return of quarterback Kirk Cousins as the Vikings acquired him from the Raiders before the trade deadline on Tuesday, and Cousins currently ranks second with 20 passing touchdowns. See which team to pick instead here.

How to make Week 10 NFL survivor pool picks

Instead, the model is confidently backing a team many have not used in survivor pools to win outright in well over 80% of simulations. The time to pick this team is now, and you can only see the play over at SportsLine.