It's NFL picks time again, which means Week 1 torture.
Figuring out Week 1 picks is as complicated as it gets. We have no idea who will be good and who will be bad. How will new coaches impact teams? How will returning injured players show in their first game back?
That makes picking this week's games even tougher than other weeks.
I had a good season in 2025, so let's see if that can carry over this year. The way I see it, if you can navigate the early weeks and settle in for October and November, you have a chance at a good season.
So let's start strong -- even in the face of Week 1 adversity.
All lines via DraftKings; All times ET
Atlanta Falcons at Pittsburgh Steelers (-3.5)
Sunday, 1 p.m. on Fox (Stream: Fubo -- try for free)
The Falcons have quarterback issues with Tua Tagovailoa named the starter. The Steelers are trotting out Aaron Rodgers for the start of his final season. With the Falcons having their two top pass rushers down, this will be a chance for Rodgers to start the season right. The Pittsburgh defense will do the rest. Steelers take it.
Pick: Steelers 27, Falcons 17
Baltimore Ravens (-3.5) at Indianapolis Colts
Sunday, 1 p.m. on CBS (Stream on Paramount+)
The Ravens and first-year coach Jesse Minter face a tough road game to open the season. Lamar Jackson and the new-look offense will have success here on the fast track. The Colts won't be able to match that. Look for a lot of points in this one with Jackson winning it.
Pick: Ravens 34, Colts 27
Buffalo Bills (-1.5) at Houston Texans
Sunday, 1 p.m. on CBS (Stream on Paramount+)
The Bills have lost the last six meetings in Houston against the Texans. Josh Allen hasn't been himself against that defense either. But this Bills team will be much more aggressive. That will help against that vaunted Houston front. On other side, the Bills will attack C.J. Stroud, which will lead to turnovers. The Bills take it.
Pick: Bills 23, Texans 20
Chicago Bears (-3) at Carolina Panthers
Sunday, 1 p.m. on Fox (Stream: Fubo -- try for free)
Caleb Williams and the Chicago offense should be ready to make big strides this season, starting in this one. The problem is the Chicago defense has issues. But I think that defense will play well enough to find a way to win against Bryce Young. Bears take it on the road.
Pick: Bears 29, Panthers 21
Cleveland Browns at Jacksonville Jaguars (-8.5)
Sunday, 1 p.m. on CBS (Stream on Paramount+)
The Browns come to Jacksonville with Deshaun Watson as the starting quarterback. That will be an issue against an improved Jacksonville defense. The Cleveland defense should be solid this year, but Trevor Lawrence and the Jaguars' passing game should have a big day here. Jaguars big as they get off to a good offensive start.
Pick: Jaguars 30, Browns 13
New Orleans Saints at Detroit Lions (-7)
Sunday, 1 p.m. on Fox (Stream: Fubo -- try for free)
The Saints and second-year quarterback Tyler Shough will be an improved team this season, but this is a tough way to open. The Lions have a dynamic offense and the venue will make it a challenge. Look for Jared Goff and the Detroit offense to have a big day. The Saints won't keep up. Lions big.
Pick: Lions 33, Saints 21
New York Jets (+1.5) at Tennessee Titans
Sunday, 1 p.m. on CBS (Stream on Paramount+)
This game features two teams that need to get off to good starts to try and gain some confidence. The Jets will be facing former coach Robert Saleh here. But this game will be about the Jets' defense against Cam Ward. I think the Jets' defense gets the best of him. Jets take it.
Pick: Jets 23, Titans 19
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+3.5) at Cincinnati Bengals
Sunday, 1 p.m. on Fox (Stream: Fubo -- try for free)
This is a tough road game to open the season for the Bucs. They have some injury issues at receiver that could be in play for Baker Mayfield against an improved Bengals defense. Joe Burrow and the Bengals' passing game will face an improved Tampa Bay pass rush. In the end, the Bengals will find a way to win a close one.
Pick: Bengals 29, Buccaneers 28
Arizona Cardinals at Los Angeles Chargers (9.5)
Sunday, 4:25 p.m. on CBS (Stream on Paramount+)
The Chargers' new-look offense under Mike McDaniel will be unleashed here against the Cardinals. It should be run heavy, which will help Justin Herbert with some big play-action shots. The Cardinals will counter with Jacoby Brissett at quarterback. This has the look of a blowout.
Pick: Chargers 31, Cardinals 14
Green Bay Packers (+1.5) at Minnesota Vikings
Sunday, 4:25 p.m. on CBS (Stream on Paramount+)
This will come down to how well the Packers handle all those Brian Flores pressure looks on defense for Minnesota. That's a challenge on the road. But Jordan Love has been good against the blitz in his career. That matters. The Green Bay defense will manufacture enough pressure -- without Micah Parsons -- to slow down Kyler Murray. Packers win it.
Pick: Packers 26, Vikings 24
Miami Dolphins at Las Vegas Raiders (-3.5)
Sunday, 4:25 p.m. on Fox (Stream: Fubo -- try for free)
This is a game featuring two teams that likely won't be doing a lot this season, so this is a chance to steal a win for both. The Raiders will start Kirk Cousins at home, while Malik Willis makes his first start for the Dolphins. I think this will be close, but the Raiders will win it late.
Pick: Raiders 21, Dolphins 17
Washington Commanders at Philadelphia Eagles (-4.5)
Sunday, 4:25 p.m. on Fox (Stream: Fubo -- try for free)
The Commanders come into this one with offensive line issues, which is never a good thing against the Eagles' defense, especially on the road. The Eagles had offensive issues last year, but this will be a game to get them going again like the Super Bowl season two years ago. Look for the Eagles to win thanks to the defense.
Pick: Eagles 30, Commanders 21
Dallas Cowboys (-3) at New York Giants
Sunday, 8:20 p.m. on NBC (Stream: Fubo -- try for free)
The Cowboys have retooled a defense that badly needed it, which will present a tough challenge for Jaxson Dart. On the other side, the Cowboys' offense should be able to have success against the Giants' defense if they block them. I think they do, even without talented guard Tyler Smith. Cowboys win it.
Pick: Cowboys 30, Giants 17
Denver Broncos at Kansas City Chiefs (-2.5)
Monday, 8:15 p.m. on ESPN (Stream: Fubo -- try for free)
This will be Patrick Mahomes in his first start since tearing his ACL. How limited will he be? It won't help he's facing one of the best defenses in the league. The Chiefs will counter with a young defense that will try and slow down a good Denver offense. At home, I think they do it. Mahomes wins it late.
