OPEC+ postpones 2027 production capacity review

OPEC+, formed by the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies led by Russia, postponed the capacity review it was carrying out to determine production quotas for 2027.

Sources speaking to the Reuters agency stated that the war waged by the United States and Israel against Iran disrupted capacity expansion projects across the region, which led to uncertainty about estimates of future production potential.

Before deciding on 2027 quotas, OPEC+ requested the maximum sustainable production capacity assessment covering all members at the end of 2025 and envisaged the process to be completed at the end of last month.

Sources noted that the schedule has been delayed and the review is expected to be completed by mid-November.

At its last widely attended meeting in June, the organization confirmed the importance of completing the maximum sustainable production capacity assessment of member countries and taking it as a basis for 2027 production reference levels.

THE REPORT WAS POSTPONED TO MID-NOVEMBER

On the other hand, US-based oil consultancy company DeGolyer and MacNaughton is working on capacity estimates for OPEC + members other than Russia, Iran and Venezuela, which are under US sanctions.

One of the sources said that the company will not submit its report to OPEC until mid-November.

The new timetable allows the OPEC+ group to discuss the findings at its well-attended meeting at the end of November.

While conflicts in the Middle East delay projects planned to increase production capacity in some OPEC+ countries, they also make calculations regarding the amount of oil that producers can extract difficult.

Sources, without naming countries, reported that some members have not yet submitted the data required for review.

This uncertainty creates sensitivity within OPEC+, as production capacity estimates will directly affect the oil production ceiling of each member.

CAPACITY ESTIMATES DETERMINE QUOTA NEGOTIATIONS

The review aims to provide an independent and up-to-date assessment of how much oil each member can sustainably produce.

This criterion forms the basis for negotiations on production targets.

Delays in capacity increases may affect the assumptions on which the evaluations are based and ultimately the future quotas of members.

While countries with low capacity may face pressure for lower quotas, producers that expand their production capacity may demand a higher share.

The United Arab Emirates, which wanted a higher quota to reflect its increased capacity, left the alliance in May.

It was reported in June that Iraq, which demanded a higher quota, was also considering leaving OPEC.