The value of 1.4% was set provisionally by the inter-ministerial decree of 19 November 2025 and applied from the beginning of 2026. However, the procedure requires that the index is subsequently verified in light of the definitive inflation data and formalized by the Ministry of Economy. Only at that point will INPS be able to definitively close the equalization operations. At the moment, therefore, there is no additional sum to be paid to pensioners to correct the revaluation carried out during 2026. The decree expected in the autumn will above all have the task of making the provisional data definitive. If, as the findings already available indicate, the 1.4% were to be confirmed, the adjustment relating to the 2026 equalization will be null and void.
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Any difference on the 2026 revaluation should therefore not be looked for in the December payslip. INPS has foreseen that the adjustment resulting from the verification of the provisional index will be carried out in the following year. For December 2026, the amount of the pension may however be different compared to other months due to the effect of the thirteenth salary, tax withholdings or any Irpef adjustments. However, these are distinct components from the equalization and must not be interpreted as a possible recovery of the 1.4% applied this year. The decisive step will therefore be the ministerial definition of the index. If the value remains the one already certified by Istat for 2025, in 2027 there will be no arrears to recover relating to the 2026 revaluation.
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The most interesting issue for pensioners therefore concerns the 2027 equalization, which will be determined on the basis of the price trend recorded in 2026. The latest Istat data have provided an important update. In August the FOI index net of tobacco grew by 3.4% on an annual basis, while the average inflation for 2026 already acquired rose to 2.9%. This last value does not yet represent the definitive revaluation of pensions, but constitutes the reference for the current estimates. If price trends remained at current levels until the end of the year, the most recent simulations indicate an equalization of around 2.7%. An acceleration in inflation in recent months could instead push the adjustment towards 2.9%. The official percentage will however be established only after the end of 2026 and the subsequent MEF decree, expected in November.
The percentages already allow us to estimate the order of magnitude of the possible increases. With a revaluation of 2.7%, a gross check of one thousand euros would increase by approximately 27 euros per month. If, however, an index of 2.9% were confirmed, the increase would reach approximately 29 euros gross per month. The same simulation, applying 2.9%, would bring a pension of 800 euros to around 823.20 euros, a pension of 1000 euros to 1,029 euros and a check of 2,000 euros to around 2,058 euros. However, these are indicative values: the actual amount will depend on the definitive index and the equalization rules in force in 2027. One aspect to consider is that the revaluation is not recognized to the same extent on all amounts. Based on the mechanism used in 2026, the adjustment is full up to four times the minimum treatment, drops to 90% on the part between four and five times the minimum and to 75% on the part above five times the minimum. For 2026 the minimum payment is equal to 611.85 euros: four times the minimum therefore corresponds to approximately 2,447 euros per month, while five times equals approximately 3,059 euros.
The extent of the adjustment expected for 2027 is also relevant for public finances. According to some estimates based on INPS data, with inflation at 2.9% the revaluation of pensions could require a total of around 10 billion euros, before the greater tax revenue generated by the same increases. The calculation starts from a pension expense of 364.13 billion euros referring to 2024. Applying 2.9% uniformly, the increase in spending would be approximately 10.56 billion; considering instead the tiered mechanism envisaged for equalization, the estimated figure would drop to around 10 billion. However, this is a simulation linked to an index that is not yet definitive.
The payslip for January 2027 may therefore contain items attributable to two different years. On the one hand there will be the new revaluation determined on the basis of 2026 inflation; on the other hand, any adjustment relating to the index used for 2026 could appear. In the event that the MEF confirms the 1.4% already applied this year, the second item will however be equal to zero. The next significant update will come with the FOI data for September, while the definitive percentage will be formalized by the Ministry of Economy towards the end of the year.
To concretely verify the effects of the new equalization, it will be useful to compare the pension payslip for December 2026 with that of January 2027. The INPS online service allows you to view the individual monthly payments and also provides the function to compare payslips. The comparison allows us to distinguish any variation due to equalization from those linked to tax withholdings, Irpef adjustments or other items. In this way it will be possible to understand whether the increase in the credit derives from the new adjustment of the treatment or from a different component of the pension.
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