Datafolha survey shows increased electoral concern in relation to 2022

The most recent Datafolha survey shows that 46% of voters say they are more concerned than in 2022 about the result of the presidential election. Another 28% say they are as worried as they were that year and 24% are less worried. 2% of those interviewed were unable to answer.

Datafolha interviewed 2,002 voters in 125 cities on Tuesday (1st) and Wednesday (2nd). The research, contracted by TV Globo and Folha, is registered with the Superior Electoral Court with code BR-03669/2026. The survey's general margin of error is plus or minus two points, within the 95% confidence level.

Among the segments surveyed, voters who declare their vote for senator Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) cite more concern, with 63% of them stating that they are more apprehensive than in 2022. They are tied in the margin of error with voters for Renan Santos (59%), Missão, Ronaldo Caiado (56%), PSD, Augusto Cury (55%), Avante, and Romeu Zema (52%), Novo.

The voter who declares his vote for President Lula (PT) records the lowest rate in this regard: 30% say they are more worried than in 2022, 33%, less and 35%, equally worried.

The majority of voters (57%) this year also say they are more determined to vote in the presidential elections than in 2022. Another 32% say they are equally determined and 11% less so. 1% of those interviewed did not know how to answer.

Flávio and Lula voters are technically tied on this item — 68% of those who declare their vote for the senator say they are more determined, compared to 61% of those who say they will vote for the president. The margin of error in these cuts is four percentage points, plus or minus.

Among the portion of voters not aligned with either PT or Bolsonarism, 40% are more determined to vote than in 2022, at the same level as those who say they are equally determined (41%). Another 18% say they are less determined.

Around a third of voters (32%) say they are less engaged in campaigning for a candidate, compared to 2022. Another 45% say they are equally engaged and 18% more. 5% of those interviewed were unable to answer.

Flávio and Lula voters are also technically tied on this question. Among those who declare their vote for the senator, 26% say they are more engaged, 25% less and 44% equally engaged. In the case of those who say they will vote for Lula, 20% say they are more engaged, 27% less and 48% equally.

In the 2022 election, Lula beat Jair Bolsonaro (PL) by the smallest difference since redemocratization: he had 50.9% of valid votes in the second round, compared to 49.1% for his rival.

The new Datafolha survey showed that Lula has 38% of voting intentions in the first round, compared to 33% for Flávio Bolsonaro. She also confirmed the rise of Augusto Cury (Avante), who rose six points and reached 8%.

As a result, the difference between the president and Jair Bolsonaro's son is five points.