Quaest survey shows Marcos Rogério with 53% of valid votes for government of Rondônia

Candidates for the government of Rondônia best positioned in the third Quaest survey — Photo: Mateus Santos/g1RO

Quaest research released this Saturday (3), the eve of the 1st round, shows how the dispute for the government of Rondônia is going. In the scenario of valid votes, Marcos Rogério appears with 53%; in this case, he would be elected in the first round.

Valid votes

Marcos Rogério (PL): 53%

Adailton Furia (PSD): 24%

Hildon Chaves (União): 15%

Expedito Netto (PT): 7%

Samuel Costa (PSB): 1%

Pedro Abib (MDB): 0%

What are valid votes?

This is the way in which the TSE publishes the official results of the elections. These are the votes cast for candidates. This calculation leaves out blank and invalid votes and abstentions. To win in the 1st round, a candidate needs 50% of the valid votes plus one vote.

How does Quaest calculate valid votes?

Quaest takes into account voting intentions from the survey and the turnout profile to estimate valid votes. It is the likely voter model, which considers voters with a greater propensity to vote.

The survey was commissioned by Rede Amazônica and interviewed 1,800 voters aged 16 or over, between October 2nd and 3rd, 2026. The margin of error is 2 percentage points, plus or minus. The confidence level is 95%. The survey was registered with the Electoral Court under number RO-09325/2026.

Total votes

See now the result with the total votes, including blank votes, invalid votes and undecided voters.

Marcos Rogério (PL): 39% (it was 37% in the previous survey)

Adailton Furia (PSD): 19% (was 21%)

Hildon Chaves (União): 11% (was 9%)

Expedito Netto (PT): 6% (was 6%)

Samuel Costa (PSB): 1% (was 1%)

Pedro Abib (MDB): 1% (was 1%)

Undecided: 17% (was 19%)

Blank/null/will not vote: 6% (was 6%)

Spontaneous search

Now look at the spontaneous survey, in which voters respond without having access to a list of candidates.

These results help to measure the degree of vote consolidation. The greater the number of undecided voters the day before, the less consolidated the vote is and the greater the possibility of changes in relation to Sunday's result.

Marcos Rogério (PL): 23% (it was 19% in the previous survey)

Adailton Furia (PSD): 11% (was 13%)

Hildon Chaves (União): 7% (was 4%)

Expedito Netto (PT): 3% (was 1%)

Samuel Costa (PSB): 0% (was 0%)

Pedro Abib (MDB): 0% (was 0%)

Others: 3% (was 2%)

Undecided: 50% (was 59%)

Blank/null/will not vote: 3% (was 2%)

Vote decision

Among voters who declare their vote for a candidate, 77% say the decision is final. Another 22% say they can still change their mind.

Choice is final: 77% (was 65%)

Could change: 22% (was 35%)

Don't know/didn't answer: 1% (was 0%)

Interest in the election

Very interested: 40% (was 32%)

Not very interested: 37% (was 44%)

Not interested at all: 21% (was 23%)

Don't know/didn't answer: 2% (was 1%)

2nd round scenarios

Quaest also simulated 2nd round scenarios. See the numbers:

Marcos Rogério (PL) x Adailton Furia (PSD)

Marcos Rogério (PL): 48% (it was 45% in the previous survey)

Adailton Furia (PSD): 28% (was 27%)

Undecided: 15% (was 17%)

Blank/null/will not vote: 9% (was 11%)

Marcos Rogério (PL) x Hildon Chaves (União)

Marcos Rogério (PL): 52% (it was 50% in the previous survey)

Hildon Chaves (União): 21% (was 17%)

Undecided: 15% (was 16%)

Blank/null/will not vote: 12% (was 17%)

Adailton Furia (PSD) x Hildon Chaves (União)

Adailton Furia (PSD): 39% (it was 38% in the previous survey)

Hildon Chaves (União): 23% (was 23%)

Undecided: 21% (was 21%)

Blank/null/will not vote: 17% (was 18%)