The market's growth, inflation and dollar forecasts have been announced: Here are the November survey results...

In the November Market Participants Survey of the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT), the 2026 year-end inflation expectation increased to 30.04 percent. In the survey, the year-end US Dollar/TL exchange rate estimate increased to 51.61 TL, and the 12-month later exchange rate expectation increased to 60.77 TL.

YEAR-END INFLATION EXPECTATION INCREASED TO 30.04 PERCENT

CBRT published the results of the November 2026 Market Participants Survey, prepared with the participation of real sector and financial sector representatives. 70 participants responded to the survey.

Accordingly, the 2026 year-end consumer inflation (CPI) expectation increased from 29.63 percent in the previous survey period to 30.04 percent.

Inflation expectation after 12 months increased from 23.89 percent to 24.04 percent, and inflation expectation after 24 months increased from 17.94 percent to 18.02 percent.

EXPECTATION OF 24 PERCENT IN INFLATION AFTER 12 MONTHS HAS BEEN STANDING OUT

The range of 23-24.99 percent had the highest share with 38.25 percent in the participants' probability predictions regarding inflation after 12 months. The 21-22.99 percent range was given a 25.27 percent probability, and the 25-26.99 percent range was given a 19.29 percent probability.

According to point forecasts, the rate of participants who expected inflation to be in the range of 23-24.99 percent after 12 months was 49.23 percent. The rate of those who predicted the ranges of 21-22.99 percent and 25-26.99 percent was recorded as 21.54 percent separately.

In probability estimates for inflation after 24 months, the range of 17-19.99 percent ranked first with 35.85 percent. This range was followed by 14-16.99 percent to 24.47 percent and 20-22.99 percent to 19.65 percent.

In point forecasts, 42.86 percent of the participants predicted that inflation would be between 17-19.99 percent after 24 months.

DECEMBER INTEREST EXPECTATION IS 35 PERCENT

In the survey, the expectation for the current month-end overnight interest rate in the BIST Repo and Reverse-Repo Market decreased from 36 percent to 35.91 percent.

The CBRT's policy rate expectation for the Monetary Policy Committee (PPK) meeting to be held in December was recorded as 35 percent.

US DOLLAR/TL EXPECTATIONS INCREASED

Participants' current year-end US Dollar/TL exchange rate expectation increased from 51.55 TL in the previous survey period to 51.61 TL.

The exchange rate expectation after 12 months also increased from 59.26 TL to 60.77 TL.

GROWTH FORECASTS HAVE NOT CHANGED

There was no change in the growth expectations of the Turkish economy in the survey.

Participants predicted growth of 2.9 percent for 2026 and 3.9 percent for 2027.