Polymarket: does the New York Times’ “suspicious bet” hold up to on-chain data?

Suspicion at $800,000. The New York Times described on November 6 bets placed on Polymarket just before the publication of its own polls on the US senatorial elections. The Block found the account on Sunday and its history tells a different story. Predictive markets didn't need one more deal.

$191,277 was bet on Nebraska about an hour before a Times/Siena poll.

$622,608 has been obligated on Michigan.

The account is called “dubdubdub2” and made around $258,000 on these positions.

Polymarket says it is investigating, Kalshi does not comment.

The alert comes from researchers at Vanderbilt University. A user bet $191,277 on Senator Pete Ricketts' victory in Nebraska, mostly in the early morning hours of October 31. An hour later, at 5:05 a.m. New York time, a Times/Siena poll gave him six points ahead. The bet yielded more than $77,000. In Michigan, $622,608 was committed before a poll favorable to Democrat Abdul El-Sayed, for more than $180,000 in profit.

“There's a set of circumstances here that are hard to put down to chance,” said Brett Goldstein, who co-directs research on predictive markets at the Vanderbilt National Security Institute. The daily itself specifies that it does not know whether the bettor had inside information, reports Cointelegraph.

The Block identified the account. His name is “dubdubdub2” and he’s not a passing stranger. He had bet about $1.05 million on Zohran Mamdani for New York City mayor in 2025. He also lost $783,000 on Hyperliquid in the 26 hours before his election bets. A confident insider doesn't look like that. In Michigan, the account bet $622,608 in the same direction on October 31: $349,135 on yes to a Democratic victory, then $273,473 on no to a Republican victory.

Two academics favor the simplest explanation. “I think it was just directional bets,” says Rajiv Sethi, an economics professor at Barnard College. Vincent Grégoire, from HEC Montréal, does not see any wrongdoing. The Block also disputes a Times figure on purchases of WLFI tokens from the same wallet, which it reduces from a third to around 6% of October 2024 sales.

The matter is not resolved. Polymarket says it spotted the transactions immediately and is investigating. Kalshi did not comment, while The Block estimates $153,000 in purchases made ten minutes after the Nebraska poll was published. The New York Times recalls that it prohibits its employees from investing based on unpublished articles.

The context works against the platforms. The U.S. Department of Justice in April charged a soldier with $409,881 in betting on Polymarket based on classified information. The CFTC (the US derivatives regulator) obtained $172,000 in August from a former White House teleprompter operator for bets on Kalshi.