US inflation on Tuesday: why the Fed could raise rates in December

One figure for the whole week. The US consumer price index for October is released on Tuesday, November 10 at 2:30 p.m. Markets give a 78.5% chance of a Fed rate hike in December. They gave 74% a week earlier. Bitcoin approaches the meeting around $74,300 and remains close to its eleven-week low.

Le consensus attend 0,3 % de hausse des prix sur un mois et 0,2 % hors énergie et alimentation.

The Fed already raised rates in September, to 3.75%-4%.

Two members of the committee wanted a new increase as early as October.

The new Democratic majority in the Senate will be able to block appointments to the Fed.

US inflation, what the market expects on Tuesday

The September figure has left its mark. Prices had jumped 0.6% in one month and 3.7% over one year, with gasoline up 9.1% which accounted for more than half of the total. The war in Iran and a barrel around 100 dollars happened there. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg expect 0.3% over one month for October and 0.2% for the underlying index, the one which excludes energy and food.

A technical detail will complicate the reading. Several analysts warn that no one-year variation will be published this month, because October 2025 prices were never recorded during the shutdown. Le Bureau of Labor Statistics ne le précise pas sur son calendrier. If you see “3.9% over one year” on Tuesday, that will be a private estimate.

Oil is going the other way this time. Le Brent a perdu autour de 15 % la semaine dernière pour finir vers 98 dollars.

Kevin Warsh's Fed has already started to raise rates

We quickly forget it. La Fed a relevé ses taux d’un quart de point le 16 septembre, sa première hausse en plus de trois ans. She left them between 3.75% and 4% on October 28, but two committee members voted for a further increase. “We will ensure price stability. Sans si, sans et, sans mais », a déclaré son président Kevin Warsh en conférence de presse.

Employment has surprised since then. The American economy created 165,000 jobs in October when the consensus expected 59,000. The CME's FedWatch tool now gives a 78.5% chance of an increase at the meeting on December 8 and 9. Un CPI au-dessus des attentes ferait monter cette probabilité, un chiffre sage laisserait une porte de sortie.

A Democratic Senate Protects the Fed, and Bitcoin Eyes Rates

The other novelty is political. Les démocrates ont au moins 54 sièges au Sénat après les élections du 3 novembre. Ils pourront refuser de confirmer les candidats de Donald Trump au conseil des gouverneurs à partir de janvier. Bloomberg notes that no seat is vacant today and that Jerome Powell's term as governor runs until January 2028. The Wall Street Journal sees this as the largest brake on the president's ambitions for the central bank.

Le précédent n’est pas flatteur pour Bitcoin. La publication du CPI de septembre l’avait fait reculer d’environ 1,2 % en quelques minutes le 14 octobre, de 83 800 à 82 800 dollars. Des taux qui montent rendent le cash et les obligations plus rémunérateurs, donc les actifs sans rendement moins attirants. Le rendement américain à 10 ans est déjà à 4,87 %.