Presidential election in Brazil: neck-and-neck race between Lula and Bolsonaro

There is a party atmosphere on Rua Ronald de Carvalho in Rio de Janeiro. In the crowded restaurant “Os Imortais” (The Immortals), chants of support for President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva keep breaking out. A prominent TV journalist from the news channel GloboNews is clearly sitting among the guests dressed as a Lula supporter.

His neighbors at the table are wearing red T-shirts with stickers reading “Fuck USA” – a reference to the punitive tariffs that US President Donald Trump recently imposed on Brazil. It's a woman's birthday and she's surprised with a Lula cream cake.

Despite the good atmosphere in the restaurant, it is by no means certain whether the 80-year-old incumbent Lula da Silva will win the presidential elections in Brazil for the fourth time on Sunday. The polls predict a neck-and-neck race with right-wing challenger Flavio Bolsonaro. The eldest son of ex-President Jair Bolsonaro, who was convicted of a failed coup attempt, is running for his Liberal Party (PL).

In order to achieve victory, Lula's left-wing ruling party Partido dos Trabalhadores (PT) is once again mobilizing all its forces on the last weekend before the elections. Election campaigners line up on the famous Copacabana beach promenade, every vote counts.

Shortly before the election, Lula also has social benefits distributed: Funds for the popular social program for low-income families, “Bolsa Família,” will be increased by 15 percent, and the state also wants to take over loans from indebted families.

GloboNews praises the program, the station belongs to the most influential media group Globo, which once again received the largest share of state advertising money this year. The Brazilian portal “Poder360” puts the total amount of social measures Lula da Silva is using to woo voters at 411.2 billion reals (around 69.5 billion euros).

Brazil cannot afford that. The national debt of Latin America's largest economy rose to 93.3 percent of gross domestic product last year - a record high on the continent. Experts at the rating agency Moody’s see the danger of inflation looming.

The president is making a risky bet: higher social spending and transfer programs are intended to boost Brazilian consumption and thus support economic growth. In order to finance the billion-dollar projects, his government is relying on new oil revenues.

Despite public commitments to climate protection, Lula is pushing ahead with the promotion of fossil fuels. Large oil reserves are believed to be off the Brazilian northern coast, not far from the mouth of the Amazon, which the state-controlled energy company Petrobras is supposed to develop.

Just a few meters as the crow flies from the celebrating Lula camp, the right-wing Bolsonaro campaign is fighting against the incumbent's plans and has opened the “House of the Right” there. Helpers set out from the small campaign headquarters and bring their message to the people. Stickers, flags and T-shirts read: “Lula has to go, Moraes has to go.”

Alexandre de Moraes headed the Supreme Electoral Court in 2022, which confirmed Lula's narrow election victory. As a judge of the Supreme Federal Court, he played a key role in the proceedings in which Jair Bolsonaro was sentenced to 27 years in prison for the coup plot. Now he is under pressure to explain himself because of his connections to former banker Daniel Vorcaro.

Moraes has cleared the way for Lula to be re-elected, says Anita, who is fighting for the election of Flavio Bolsonaro in the “House of the Right” that day. The law firm of the judge's wife is said to have received millions in contracts from the insolvent and scandal-ridden banker Daniel Vorcaro.

Moraes is also said to have advised this same banker during the federal police's investigation into the coup attempt in the winter of 2022/23, as can be seen from seized messages and audio recordings from Vorcaro. For the Bolsonaro camp, one thing is certain: Moraes and the Supreme Court, which is close to Lula, can be bought.

The scandal is one of a number of corruption allegations that have overshadowed the election campaign - and also affect the president's son Fábio Luís da Silva, known as “Lulinha”. It is being examined whether he used his proximity to power to enable entrepreneurs to do business with ministries and state-owned companies. Da Silva denies the allegations.

Candidate Flavio Bolsonaro is also said to have received money from the network surrounding the banker Vorcaro. According to media reports, he asked the then banker for millions for a film biography about his father. Around 61 million real, the equivalent of around nine million euros, are said to have initially flowed into the project. The federal police are investigating whether some of the funds were used for other purposes. Bolsonaro also denies any wrongdoing.

However, many Brazilians have lost trust in politics given the potential entanglements of the candidates. At the same time, there are no promising challengers.

It is difficult to say whether these cases represent a threat to democracy, says political scientist João Pedro Pádua in an interview with WELT AM SONNTAG. “But of course, especially now – at a time of political polarization and even heightened political rivalries – the weakening of such an important power as the Supreme Federal Court is leading to a general instability of Brazilian institutions.”

If the polls are right and neither candidate gets more than 50 percent of the vote, there will be a runoff election on October 25th.