Oscar Wilde defined a cynic as “a man who knows the price of everything and the value of nothing.” The 2027 presidential election offers him a textbook case. Tuesday October 6, shortly after 7 a.m., David Lisnard was worth 13.3 cents on Polymarket, a hair ahead of Jean-Luc Mélenchon (13), behind Marine Le Pen (42.5) and Édouard Philippe (18). His supporters immediately released the screenshots. The mayor of Cannes found himself “third man” in an election where Ifop measured him at 3.5% of voting intentions.
We wanted to know what this figure weighed. The JDC examined the public data of this betting site, blocked in France since July, i.e. a little more than 10,000 transactions examined account by account. You won't fall out of your chair when you learn that the crowds are sparse. The bill is worth the detour.
Polymarket, the betting site where David Lisnard is worth 13 cents
A word of explanation for those who have never set foot there. Polymarket is an American site where you bet on the news, from an election to the weather, with cryptocurrencies indexed to the dollar. The principle is in one line. You buy a “Yes” share on an event, for example “David Lisnard will be elected president”. If he wins, it gives you 1 dollar. If he loses, on the other hand, it is no longer worth anything.
The price of this share reads like a probability. At 13 cents, bettors estimate that the candidate has around a 13% chance of winning, or one in seven or eight. This is called a rating. However, it is in no way a poll, since no one asks a sample of French people for whom they will vote. Anyone in the world can buy, without giving their name or nationality. And you can “vote” as many times as you have dollars to bet, from as many accounts as you want.
One detail matters for the rest. The price displayed on Polymarket corresponds to the midpoint between the best purchase offer and the best sale offer (and at the last exchange when the difference between the two exceeds 10 cents). However, on a bet with little attendance, these offers are rare. Imagine an auction in an almost empty room (three raised hands are enough to make a lot go up in flames). A few thousand dollars exhausts the cheap shares and the stock soars.
Lisnard rating: $12,000 was enough to almost triple it
The rating experienced two distinct surges, the first in mid-September, the second in early October. The dates, to find your way around:
September 6 to 13: the rating increases from around 3% to more than 8%. 97 accounts buy for $12,400.
September 10: The French Mileists write on X that the rating “explodes”. 97,000 views.
September 25: Cyril Hanouna pretends to bet 50 euros on David Lisnard in his show on W9.
September 30: a new account bets $105,000 against the mayor of Cannes.
October 2 to 6: 182 buyers bid $75,600. The 4th, record of 203,000 dollars exchanged in one day.
October 5, 11:37 p.m.: David Lisnard publishes his message on X.
October 6: the share is worth 13.3 cents.
Let’s go back to the start of the ascent. On September 6, David Lisnard's share traded around 3 cents, with a low of a few hours at 1.4 cents. On the 13th, it is worth more than 8. Its rating therefore goes from around 3% to more than 8% in one week, almost triple (we have seen more timid memecoins).
During those eight days, 97 accounts purchased Lisnard for a net total of $12,400. The volume exchanged over the period reached $60,000, including resales and adverse bets, but the buyers' net stake stopped at these $12,400. Five of them, however, account for 68% of the bill. Half of the buyers bid less than fifteen dollars, the price of a menu, drinks included.
On X, the first relays of the rating of David Lisnard
This first excitement has already taken over on X. On September 5, a parody account asserts on On the 10th, the account Les Mileistes Français wrote that its rating “exploded”: 97,000 views. On that day, the volume traded increased from $2,200 to $20,800.
So here is the price. For the cost of a used city car, a candidate absent from most of the hypotheses tested by pollsters becomes an ascending curve that can be shown on television. The betting page shows a flattering volume of 3.89 million. But this counter adds up the shares exchanged, which are worth a few cents each. The money actually passed from hand to hand since February is around a million dollars.
On Kalshi, 3,400 dollars exchanged since August
The American competitor Kalshi, often cited as reinforcement, has a rating close to 12%. However, only around 3,400 dollars have been traded on David Lisnard since August, including almost 2,000 in a single order. On September 10, the day of its “jump” to 12%, it traded at $108. Priceless. On September 26 at 5:47 p.m., a buyer in a hurry emptied the order book and paid up to 75 cents for certain shares, as if the mayor of Cannes had a three out of four chance of being elected.
The rest is like a soap opera. On September 25, twelve days after this first outburst, Cyril Hanouna pretended to bet 50 euros on the victory of the mayor of Cannes in his show “Tout beau, tout n9uf” on W9 (the Belgian site 21 News echoed this on September 27). He assures that “100% of French people who know him want to vote for him”. Nine days later, on October 4, Les Mileistes Français, already at work in September, announced on X that nothing is “more reliable” than this rating. Nearly 500,000 views. The same day, 137 wallets (the equivalent of one account on these platforms) exchanged $203,000 on the Lisnard bet, an absolute record.
At the beginning of October, 182 buyers and three accounts representing 40% of stakes
From October 2 to 6, we counted, with the help of Fable, 182 buyers. They bet $75,600 in total, and half of them bet less than $40. 145 had never touched this bet. Curious people, for the most part, at least in number. In terms of amount, three accounts arrived between October 3 and 5 (Sieghart14, resuildde and LaQuica6) alone weigh around $31,000, or 40% of the total. Moreover, several accounts were opened the day before or the same day of their purchase, sometimes after a trial deposit of 49 dollars, which suggests more of the diligent beginner than the shadow strategist.
Other media, including Bourse Inside, mention a brief peak of 17% on October 5. However, the price series published by Polymarket, recorded minute by minute, does not exceed 14% over the period. Isolated purchases may have concluded higher without the displayed price following.
On October 5 at 11:37 p.m., let's be precise, David Lisnard published the following sentence on X: “Don't waste any more time trying to convince me: I'm going to vote for myself. » Follows #ilsepassesomething, trending in France the next morning. It is useful to note that neither his account nor that of his party have ever written the word “Polymarket”, according to our research on the network. The candidate provides the slogan, his relays provide the figure, and each can swear to have asked nothing of the other.
The evidence on Polymarket: public wallets, $5 bets
None of this is secret. Polymarket operates on a blockchain, that is to say a public register where each purchase leaves a trace that anyone can consult. Three examples, supporting addresses.
The biggest buyer. The Sieghart14 account (0x0e8c67cff62868912d8ae14b6cd4246dde2613aa) registered in October 2026, according to his profile, and carried out his first transaction on October 3 at 1:52 p.m. He made three purchases during the day, of 2,490, 3,456 then 9,009 dollars, fees understood. Total: 162,613 shares paid around 9 cents each, or $14,955 including fees (14,429 excluding fees, the amount shown in our graph below). He also does not hold any other bets on the platform.
The little carrier. On September 10 at 11:03 a.m., in full swing, the Capico account (0xf5b46aa60abd196d04d6de64978dd13a8a7046db) bought two lots of 114 shares at $5 per lot. Twenty-eight minutes later, he took it back for $10. He resold the whole thing on September 14 for $31.78, making an eleven dollar profit. On the morning of September 11, a certain ispiceTra took 100 for $5.90. Of the 121 “Yes” share purchases recorded that week, 80 did not exceed $30.
A $105,000 bettor against the mayor of Cannes
The adversary. The biboutou account (0xb0144e1bf2607ae00cb4b679a3d309235b17c6f4) appears on September 30. At 9:01 p.m., he purchased 50,000 “No” shares for $46,602, including fees. Six minutes later, he added 62,691 for $58,465, or $105,000 in two orders. He then completed his bet: on October 6, his profile displayed 118,339 “No” shares, for a cost price of approximately $110,000 excluding fees.
Manipulation on Polymarket? Our data does not allow us to establish this
The Chained Duck raised the hypothesis of manipulated odds. Questioned by the weekly, the person replied “I don’t even know how it works! » (the admission is surprising from a mayor whose city trained its merchants to pay in cryptocurrencies in February 2025, before hosting the EthCC, the European high mass of Ethereum).
Our data does not allow us to establish manipulation. But they don't exclude it either. In September, five accounts paid for 68% of purchases. In October, three accounts arrived in three days weighing 40% of the stakes, and two other big buyers, neutralwave23 and Thibaud (around $10,000 each), remain to be examined. Nothing prevents the same person from hiding behind several pseudonyms, the case of Théo in 2024 reminds us below.
What would proof look like? For example, several of these wallets would have to have been funded from the same address, a sign that a single hand is hiding behind several pseudonyms. Or that the same actor buys and sells to himself to raise the price without risking anything. Or even that a link appears between big buyers and the candidate's entourage, with purchases placed just before the publications which praise the rating. None of these elements are established at this stage.
What the data describes with certainty is of another nature, and it is more embarrassing than a conspiracy. An activist account catches fire, a host talks about it, a few dozen curious people buy for the price of a full tank, the price goes up, the capture goes back onto the networks, other curious people arrive. The loop can turn on its own. No cheating is required when a bet is low enough for a buzz to be enough.
The biggest bettors are betting against David Lisnard
Serious money looks elsewhere. On Polymarket, you can also buy “No” shares, which pay off if the candidate loses. The biggest bettor on the market thus pledged 430,000 dollars against David Lisnard (he wagered 228,000 against Marine Le Pen, which rules out personal vendetta). His profile, LlamaLoco0000, shows a registration in July 2022 and 428 different bets.
An unnamed address appears above him in the register, with more than 960,000 “No” shares: he is not a bettor but, in all likelihood, a technical address of Polymarket, without owner, where the “No” shares go which their holders convert into shares in the other candidates. The biboutou account, opened on September 30, deposited 113,000 dollars and committed most of it to his defeat, including 105,000 in six minutes. The first alone therefore weighs more than five times the 182 buyers at the beginning of October combined.
Let's add a legal detail. The National Gaming Authority, the French online betting watchdog, blocked Polymarket on July 16 for illegal gambling offerings. It also recalls that advertising for an unauthorized site is an offense punishable by a fine of 100,000 euros. The 205,057 French visitors recorded in June have clearly not all given up trying to circumvent the blockage.
Trump 2024, Lisnard 2027: the Polymarket rating brandished as proof
Fans of precedents will cite November 2024. Polymarket gave Donald Trump around 60% when the pollsters saw a coin toss, and the market was right. However, we easily forget that this price owed a lot to a single man, a Frenchman nicknamed Théo, who managed nine to eleven accounts according to successive estimates from the analysis company Chainalysis, and pocketed between 79 and 85 million dollars. Theo bet big on what he believed, on a market worth more than $3 billion where a purchase of $12,000 would have gone unnoticed.
One might wonder if this is a “Trump-style” manipulation. The question is legitimate, provided we look at what is established. Since 2024, the family has moved to the other side of the wicket. Donald Trump Jr. advises Kalshi for a fee. He also sits on the advisory board of Polymarket, in which the 1789 Capital fund, of which he is a partner, has invested.
On September 21, Republican Senator John Curtis called for an investigation into these links, reports the specialist site SBC Americas. His letter targets those close to a president who would derive private benefit from this proximity. However, no investigation has established to date that the Trumps rigged the odds, and nothing comparable appears around David Lisnard. The discomfort is of another order. In 2024, the Trump camp brandished these odds on the campaign trail. The president's son now advises the bookmaker, and his fund is a shareholder.
Elon Musk's argument recycled for 2027
The resemblance to 2027 lies elsewhere. In October 2024, Elon Musk explained to his subscribers that these odds were “more precise than the polls”, since real money was at stake. The phrase comes up today almost word for word among David Lisnard's relays, applied to a bet hundreds of times smaller. But the argument had weight when billions were on the table. With 12,000 dollars, it mainly describes the mood of 97 people.
