Red carpet and handshake. Donald Trump receives Xi Jinping this Thursday, September 24 at the White House. The Chinese leader had not set foot there for more than ten years. The markets had placed this peak among the obstacles for bitcoin. However, they received a gift before discussions even opened.
Washington and Beijing had in fact resolved the most urgent issue the previous evening. The two capitals extend their trade truce until January 10. The summit can therefore focus on what is really annoying.
Scott Bessent made the announcement Wednesday evening on Fox News. The Treasury Secretary then came out of a meeting with Chinese Vice-Premier He Lifeng. Trump and Xi concluded the Busan truce in South Korea at the end of October 2025. It was due to expire on November 10. Now, it runs until January 10, according to NBC News.
Let us first recall what this compromise contains. Washington halved its fentanyl surcharge, from 20 to 10%. Thus, the total customs burden on Chinese products fell from 57 to 47%. In exchange, Beijing suspended its export restrictions on rare earths. Additionally, China has promised to purchase at least 25 million tons of American soybeans per year until 2028.
Two months is short. According to Bessent, however, both camps are exploring a broader agreement. The Chinese delegation reportedly launched this idea on Sunday in New York. The pricing risk will therefore return to the table at the start of next year.
First point of friction, rare earths. Washington believes that China has not fully kept its commitments on export licenses. However, these metals remain essential for electric motors, chips and missiles. Gallium, germanium and antimony are part of the lot. In addition, a bilateral trade office is now functioning, according to Trade Representative Jamieson Greer. It must streamline exchanges without national security issues.
Artificial intelligence comes just behind. According to Bessent, the two countries agreed on Sunday on a hotline for reporting AI-related incidents. In contrast, Chinese state media simply say that both sides discussed the subject. At the same time, Beijing is investigating DeepSeek and Moonshot AI. Anthropic accuses these two companies of having trained their models on Claude.
That leaves Taiwan. However, the most explosive file was not the subject of any prior announcement. A sale of American arms to the island remains pending the outcome of the discussions. Another subject to watch is Chinese “overcapacity”. The USTR, the office of the United States Trade Representative, was to publish its findings on this point. A surcharge of 7.5% is included. However, the administration is expected to delay this announcement until at least after the summit.
Today's program is a great spectacle. First, review of the guard of honor in the rose garden. Then, interviews in the Oval Office and then in the Cabinet Room. Finally, small group tea in the afternoon and state dinner in the evening in the East Room. However, observers are not expecting a spectacular breakthrough.
Investors largely anticipated the extension of the truce, notes the specialist site investingLive. The real test therefore concerns the scale of the agreement. A simple renewal would leave the markets in uncertainty from January. Conversely, a broader framework would lower the risk premium on Asian assets and the yuan. For bitcoin, each new trade tension also weighs on inflation expectations. However, the ten-year American rate, above 5%, is already shaking it up.
