The official inflation preview for September was 0.70%, the highest since April (0.89%). The result is a reversal of August's deflation (negative inflation), which was -0.40%.
The main explanation for the acceleration is the return of the Itaipu bonus, a discount that consumers received on the previous month's electricity bill.
The data comes from the Broad National Consumer Price Index 15 (IPCA-15), released this Friday (25) by the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE).
With the result, the IPCA-15 totals 4.47% in the 12-month period. In August, it was 4.24%. In September 2025, the inflation preview was 0.48%.
In 2026, the IPCA-15 accumulates 3.82%. See month by month the behavior of the inflation preview for the year:
January: 0.20%
February: 0.84%
March: 0.44%
April: 0.89%
May: 0.62%
June: 0.41%
July: 0.06%
August: -0.40%
September: 0.70%
Groups
To arrive at the monthly result, IBGE calculates the prices of nine groups of products and services. See how the groups behaved:
Housing: 2.07% (impact of 0.31 percentage points)
Personal expenses: 0.96% (0.10 p.p.)
Transport: 0.60% (0.12 p.p.)
Household items: 0.55% (0.02 p.p.)
Communication: 0.54% (0.02 p.p.)
Clothing: 0.41% (0.02 p.p.)
Food and beverages: 0.40% (0.09 p.p.)
Health and personal care: 0.13% (0.02 p.p.)
Education: 0.03% (0 p.p.)
Itaipu Bonuses
The increase in the housing group, which put the most pressure on the preview, is explained by residential electricity, which rose 7.42% in September, representing the biggest individual impact on the index (0.29 p.p.).
This happened because in August, the electricity bill had fallen by 6.25%, benefiting from the Itaipu Bonus.
The bonus consists of the distribution of the positive balance in the commercialization account of Itaipu, a state-owned hydroelectric plant, which becomes a credit in the energy bills.
In September, as this discount was no longer available, the “normal” electricity bill is compared to the lower one in August, making the difference from one month to the next greater. This effect was already expected by IBGE and analysts.
Transport and fuels
In the Transport group, the result was influenced by air tickets, which rose almost 10% (9.82%).
Fuels became 0.22% more expensive, with the following price behavior:
vehicle gas: 1.56%
gasoline: 0.30%
diesel oil: -0.78%
ethanol: -0.22%
Food
In the food and beverages group, the food at home subgroup rose 0.38% in September. In August, deflation of -0.97% was recorded.
The biggest increases in food at home were:
tomato: 20.76%
rice: 2.39%
meat: 1.30%
The following stood out in the falls:
carioca beans: -6.33%
onion: -4.41%
ground coffee: -1.36%
Inflation preview
The IPCA-15 basically has the same methodology as the IPCA, the so-called official inflation, which serves as the basis for the government's inflation target policy: 3% accumulated over 12 months, with a tolerance margin of 1.5 percentage points more or less.
The difference lies in the price collection period and geographic coverage. In the preview, the research is carried out and published even before the reference month ends. In relation to the current disclosure, the collection period was from August 15th to September 15th.
Both indices take into account a basket of products and services for families with incomes between one and 40 minimum wages. Currently the minimum value is R$1,621.
The IPCA-15 collects prices of 367 products and services (10 less than the IPCA) in 11 locations across the country (the metropolitan regions of Rio de Janeiro, Porto Alegre, Belo Horizonte, Recife, São Paulo, Belém, Fortaleza, Salvador and Curitiba, in addition to Brasília and Goiânia.); and the IPCA, 16 locations (includes Vitória, Campo Grande, Rio Branco, São Luís and Aracaju).
The full IPCA for September will be released on October 9th.
Last Monday's Focus bulletin (21), a survey by the Central Bank (BC) with financial market institutions, indicates that the market expects September inflation to be 0.52%.
