American President Donald Trump faces a Congress much less committed to his cause.
The Democratic Party, until now a minority in the House of Representatives, won a majority in the lower house of Congress on Wednesday, November 4, following mid-term elections that were crucial for the continuation of the Trump presidency.
The Republicans lost more than twenty seats there, according to our real-time count.
In the Senate, the upper house where 35 seats out of 100 were renewed on Tuesday, the progressive camp made a clear breakthrough and even won the majority, with more than 51 seats.
At a time when the majorities are being reshaped in Washington, the room for maneuver of Democratic elected officials, vis-à-vis the White House, is at the heart of the debates following these midterms.
“Donald Trump will remain the leader of the executive power. He will have the State and federal agencies at his disposal, i.e. considerable power,” warns historian Ludivine Gilli, director of the North America Observatory at the Jean Jaurès Foundation.
The loss of two Republican majorities in Congress, however, will "partially limit his power of action" over the next two years - until the end of his last term.
A legislative marathon in perspective
With this electoral setback, the populist leader lost significant support in his new presidency: a narrow Republican majority of 218 seats in the House of Representatives, not counting the 53 Republican seats in the Senate.
Without a majority in the lower house of Congress, "Donald Trump will no longer have the possibility of obtaining, as he had until now, the passage of laws that he defends", explains Ludivine Gilli.
The Democrats could take advantage of this shift to act, and act quickly, on certain public policies.
According to information from the New York Times, the future leader of the Democrats in the House of Representatives, Hakeem Jeffries, plans to defend several pieces of legislation starting in January.
Several of his collaborators, interviewed by the New York Times, mentioned the following priorities in the first 100 hours: the cancellation of budget cuts affecting the Medicaid health insurance program, the end of customs duties or even pressure for Donald Trump to put an end to the war in the Middle East, launched alongside Israel on February 28.
In the following weeks, elected Democrats could try to hold the immigration police (ICE) more accountable, while working on an increase in the minimum wage, according to the American daily.
Hakeem Jeffries also advocates an extension of tax credits on the construction of social housing, among other measures linked to the cost of living.
Presidential veto power
Will the Democrats succeed in getting them adopted?
Even if both chambers agree, the president retains decisive power over laws: that of signing them or vetoing them, as specified by Congress.
“I veto everything, and then the Democrats come and try to make a deal,” Donald Trump has already anticipated, according to CNN.
Democrats did the same.
Several of them believe that they will be able to circumvent the presidential veto, if the proposed text is popular enough and even gains the support of Republicans on Capitol Hill.
If we pass bipartisan bills that are very popular, Donald Trump will be faced with a choice.
In the past, he was able to choose not to go against public opinion on certain texts.
Deborah K. Ross, elected Democrat from North Carolina at the "New York Times"
Beyond his veto power, Donald Trump could, in response, govern more by presidential decree.
“But the federal budget remains the prerogative of Congress,” recalls Ludivine Gilli.
This is the "power of the purse", as Congress emphasizes: the institution, and in particular the House of Representatives, can "raise taxes and spend public funds for the national government".
“We can expect skirmishes on this subject, but also on migration policies,” believes Ludivine Gilli.
Parliamentary investigations in perspective
Another effect of the elections is expected at the start of the year on Capitol Hill.
Democratic elected officials in the House of Representatives also have the power of parliamentary investigation.
Summons to testify, sending of documents... Across the Atlantic, initial avenues of investigation are being developed, according to information from the BBC.
“We will hold accountable those who have inflicted unprecedented corruption on this country,” Hakeem Jeffries said on Tuesday.
We expect a whole series of investigations.
The House of Representatives has substantial investigative mandates.
Ludivine Gilli, director of the North American Observatory at the Jean Jaurès Foundation at franceinfo
These representatives intend in particular to investigate financial agreements involving members of the Trump family or administration.
“We want to make sure that taxpayers' money is used wisely, that it is not diverted or put into the pockets of some people due to corruption,” Suhas Subramanyam, Democratic representative from Virginia, told the BBC.
Jamie Raskin, elected official from Maryland, tells the New York Times that he wants to look into cryptocurrency movements within the Trump clan, as well as within the government.
Several figures in the administration could also be the subject of investigations.
“We could be heading towards impeachment proceedings.
I'm thinking in particular of Pete Hegseth", analyzes Ludivine Gilli.
The defense minister – renamed secretary of war – could be judged on his handling of the war in Iran, as well as the strikes that hit ships in the Caribbean, according to the BBC.
The actions of Elon Musk, a former administration official who heads the Department of Government Effectiveness, also promise to be scrutinized.
“A strong obstruction power of the Senate”
With more than 51 seats, the Democrats will be able to take advantage of a majority in the Senate to limit the actions of the Trump administration.
As The Guardian points out, the upper house of Congress has the power to confirm appointments of cabinet members, ambassadors and even federal judges.
“It’s very important.
There will be strong obstruction power in the Senate with the Democratic majority,” anticipates Ludivine Gilli.
