The tables in the report from the State General Accounting Office illustrate first of all the increase in the retirement age linked to life expectancy. In 2027 you will retire at 67 years and one month of age and in 2028 at 67 years and three months. In 2029 it will further rise to 67 years and six months, while in 2031 we will have to wait for 67 years and 8 months.
Read also: Early retirement at 64, timing and requirements. The guide
Looking at the growth in the ratio between pension spending and GDP, the peak will be reached in 2041 at 17.1%, a level at which it will remain for the following three years. The growing dynamic, explains the State General Accounting Office, is mainly linked to the increase in the number of pensions compared to that of employed people, "induced by the demographic transition linked to the entry into retirement of the baby boom generations", only partially compensated by the increase in the minimum requirements for access to retirement and by the effect of the containment of pension allowances due to the gradual application of the contributory system as the only calculation method.
Read also: Ordinary early pension, the requirements will change from 2027: what's new for men and women
The expenditure-to-GDP ratio will begin to progressively decline from 2045 onwards, falling to 16.2% in 2050 and 14% in 2070. In this case, according to the State General Accounting Office, the reduction compared to the peak will be determined precisely by the generalized application of the contributory contribution which will be accompanied by the stabilisation, and subsequent trend reversal, of the ratio between pensions and employed people. In fact, the trend will be affected by both the progressive exit of baby boomers and the automatic adjustment of minimum retirement requirements based on life expectancy.
The Accounting Office also analyzed the trend over the years in overall spending on pensions, healthcare and long-term care, evaluating it in this case too in relation to GDP. After the increases in the two three-year periods 2008-2010 and 2012-2014, due exclusively to the impact of the recession and the consequent drop in product levels, the ratio between overall spending and GDP fell, reaching 22.5% in 2018. Spending started to grow again in 2019, reaching 22.7% of GDP, while in 2020 - mainly due to the impact of Covid-19 pandemic and the collapse of the economy - suffered a significant increase, reaching 25.3%.
In the following years, with the recovery of GDP, overall public spending linked to the aging of the population reduced by 3.3 percentage points, reaching 22.1 in 2023. According to estimates from the State General Accounting Office, it will then start to grow again up to 23.2% in 2030, a value which is still 6 tenths of a point of GDP higher than that of 2018, and just over one percentage point higher than that of 2023. Starting from 2030, it is estimated that the ratio will grow further up to the maximum value of 25.5% in 2044, and then assume a decreasing trend that will bring it to 23% in 2070, a level higher than the value of 2018 and 2023.
The Accounting Office's estimates are based on last year's Budget Law and on the latest available macroeconomic estimates, i.e. those of the April Public Finance Document. But the debate on pensions in view of the next Maneuver has already come to life, starting from the League's proposal, put forward by the Undersecretary of Labor Claudio Durigon, which plans to allow early retirement at 64 for the next three years by calculating the entire amount of the allowance with the contributions, and assuming a reduction in the minimum threshold of the accrued pension.
Read also: Early retirement at 64, CGIL against the League's proposal: "Hundreds of euros less per month"
And the president of INPS Gabriele Fava spoke precisely on the hypothesis feared by the Undersecretary of Labor Durigon, on the sidelines of the event Demographic evolution and pension system in Italy according to the XXV Annual Report of INPS. The decision, said Fava, "is exclusively up to the legislator, who is the dominus of the situation from a regulatory point of view". The worker who reaches a certain age threshold "will be able to choose whether to remain active or retire only when a law expressly provides for it, because it is up to that body to regulate the matter, a choice which, once regulated, could translate into a faculty left to the will of the worker". "The data we have tell us that there was an increase in workers over 55 between 2019 and 2025, and it is an objective increase", added the INPS president. "Optionally, if an over 55 person wishes to continue working, remaining active, he or she can do so. Often, moreover, it is the worker himself who wishes to do so, because continuing to work means remaining an active part of his community, not just an economic obligation. The future of welfare is not measured in years to be taken away from work, but in years to be returned to the lives of those who choose it".
Read also: Can you receive a pension without ever having paid contributions? The possible routes
