Seven months before the presidential election in France, Marine Le Pen's right-wing Rassemblement National (RN) gained party strength for the first time in the partial Senate election. French media reported this based on largely definitive election results. In the evening, Le Pen spoke of a “historic victory” and the achievement of an important milestone, even before the full results were available. “The results exceed all our expectations, the breakthrough is comprehensive and confirms the increasing spread of the Rassemblement National throughout the national territory.”
Half of the Senate, the upper house of the French Parliament, was re-elected on Sunday. Around 93,500 local and regional politicians were called to vote - the senators are not directly elected by the population. So far, the parliamentary chamber has been dominated by conservatives and it was expected that there would be no fundamental shifts in power in the partial election.
The conservative Républicains were by far the largest group with 131 members. President Emmanuel Macron's camp recently had 19 seats in the Senate. The RN previously had three seats, at least ten are needed to form a parliamentary group. The RN has now gained further seats thanks to the support of the new right-wing splinter party of the former Républicains leader Éric Ciotti, who has been mayor of Nice since the end of March. As a parliamentary group, the RN now has more rights in the Senate, such as speaking time, asking questions of the government and setting the agenda.
Election success with a signal effect
The right-wing RN's increase in power has primarily a signaling effect shortly before the presidential election, in which Le Pen herself wants to run as a candidate with a chance of success. In recent years, the party, which was previously excluded as a right-wing extremist, has tried to adopt a more moderate tone and make itself more electable to broader sections of the population. Since the 2024 parliamentary election, the RN has been the largest faction in the National Assembly. The results of the Senate election definitely support Le Pen and her party.
The chances that the daughter of party founder Jean-Marie Le Pen will actually be elected president next spring also depends very much on who enters the race for the other political camps. But these have not yet been clearly sorted out - with the exception of France's Left Party, for which its leader Jean-Luc Mélenchon is once again running. However, Le Pen's chances of making it into the runoff are quite good. It has been clearly ahead in the surveys for months with over 30 percent.
Conviction for breach of trust could still slow Le Pen down
However, Le Pen could still recover her conviction for embezzlement of EU funds, which she has already appealed and was confirmed by an appeal court in July. Depending on how quickly the Court of Cassation decides, the 58-year-old could face wearing an ankle bracelet in the middle of the election campaign - with a corresponding restriction on her freedom of movement within France. Otherwise, she would enjoy immunity after a possible election as president and the punishment could only be carried out after her term in office.
The Senate consists of 348 members who are elected for six years. About half of the seats are filled every three years. Now there are 178. The Senate is involved in legislation, but in the event of conflicts with the National Assembly it has to bow to the vote of the lower house. The official final results of the election will be published on Monday.
