
Before the fifth winter of war, Moscow is deliberately attacking waterworks, food warehouses and infrastructure in order to cause famine and new waves of refugees.
In the fall of 2026, Russia will specifically attack civilian infrastructure in Ukraine such as food warehouses, waterworks and transport hubs in order to destroy the population's livelihoods before the coming winter.
AI-generated summary
The war in Ukraine has lasted four and a half years. Russia rejects ceasefires supported by Kyiv and the US.
Going to the supermarket, getting gas, traveling by train – things that are everyday things for us have become life-threatening in Ukraine in the fall of 2026, even far beyond the front lines. At any time, a Russian drone can hit a shopping center, a rocket can blow up your car, or a glide bomb can destroy your apartment.
Russia is now attacking the civilian population day and night. Vibrating cell phones with air alert apps have become background noise. Sirens in the capital Kyiv and across the country are wailing almost non-stop.
In four and a half years of war, the Ukrainians have had to get used to a lot. Last winter, the harshest from a meteorological point of view since the Russian attack, some of them endured months in cold and dark apartments because Russia destroyed energy generators and heating plants. From Kiev's perspective, the spring and summer brought comparatively positive news from the front in addition to warmth and light: Russia's advance slowed to a near standstill, and the Ukrainian army managed to liberate smaller areas.
There is already a shortage of goods in supermarkets
But the hope for a fundamental change in the situation, even for peace at last, was in vain. Russia strictly rejects a ceasefire, which Kiev has agreed to several times this year, including under US mediation. Militarily, however, Moscow is stuck. The Russian army only manages to make minimal advances in Ukraine with incredible human losses. Putin can only find support for his war by paying ever higher bonuses for recruiting soldiers. Money that must primarily be paid for by regions that lack the funds for schools and roads.
Because there is little change in its self-inflicted military misery, Russia has now resorted to destroying the Ukrainians' livelihoods before the fifth winter of war. Moscow is no longer “just” attacking energy and thermal power plants, but is also blowing up waterworks, gas stations, food warehouses, trains and bus terminals. In some Ukrainian regions, half of the storage capacity for food has already been destroyed, and some supermarkets have already run out of goods. And it's only September.
“Never again war” sounds cheap in Eastern Europe
With millions of dollars spent, Russia is bombing Ukraine into a foreseeable famine. Not only does it condone the deaths of many civilians, it will also deliberately cause a new wave of refugees in order to stir up unrest in those countries that support Kiev in its defense. Now that the entire Ukraine is no longer safe from Moscow's bombing, people will inevitably seek protection beyond their borders, including in Germany.
This is one of the reasons why the assertion heard primarily from the AfD and BSW that we have nothing to do with this war is not true. It is an illusion that we can stay out of the Russian murder that is raging less than a thousand kilometers from Germany. This is not possible simply because of human decency. And don't we constantly imagine that we have learned from our own terrible history?
But one of the lessons from this is not the oft-heard phrase “Never again war!” This sounds, especially to Eastern European ears, like a cheap phrase and even didactic when lectured by the descendants of those who once plunged the continent into disaster with the Second World War. Instead, the lesson must be that which was already read on banners in Poland decades ago and is still today: “Never again occupation!”, “Never again death camps!”, in short: “Never again defenseless!”
In relation to Ukraine, this means equipping the country now, before winter, with everything it urgently needs for its defense. This includes, first and foremost, anti-aircraft defense systems, as well as ammunition, which are stored in countries in Central and Western Europe but can save lives every day in Ukraine. Secondly, this includes substantial financial and material help to quickly repair damage and minimize human suffering. And thirdly, this includes finally sanctioning Russia for its crimes in a decisive, comprehensive and effective manner.
AI outlook — possibilities, not facts
Triggering a new wave of refugees towards Western Europe by destroying livelihoods.
Likely · Within months
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