Russia's hybrid attacks on Europe have become increasingly brazen, while the Russian military is stuck in eastern Ukraine.
Airspace violations, sabotage and assassination attempts have been linked to Russia.
Most recently by Germany singling out the country: In August, a drone loaded with explosives was discovered near a Ukrainian cargo plane in Leipzig. It could have caused a disaster.
– Typical escalation in practice. Perhaps it was meant not to explode, just to send a message that Russia can reach everywhere, said Elena Davlikanova, a senior researcher at Ukraine's Sahaydatny Institute.
Many of the attacks have targeted countries that supported Ukraine. Germany, Poland and the Baltic countries have been particularly vulnerable.
- The attacks are not only a response to the support for Ukraine, but part of Russia's strategy to re-establish its hegemony in Europe.
- Russia wants to destroy the EU, NATO and Europe's identity. Europe should realize that Russia is already waging a full-scale hybrid war.
There have also been reports that Russia is planning an attack to test NATO's cohesion. A cyber attack, hybrid attack or even a military incursion into the Baltic countries.
When CIA Director John Ratcliffe visited Moscow last week, there were reports that he warned Russia against attacking the Baltic states. According to media reports, US intelligence services suspect that Russia is planning an attack on NATO.
- It is very likely that Russia is planning an attack against a NATO country, probably one of the Baltic countries. It does not necessarily involve soldiers, but it could take the form of an airstrike against Lithuania, Latvia or Estonia, says Davlikanova.
Russia has stepped up its airstrikes against Ukrainian cities, although Ukraine has developed effective methods to defend itself against kamikaze drones. No European country has as effective air defense as Ukraine, Davlikanova underlines.
Lithuania recently warned that Russia is planning a false flag attack, using hijacked Ukrainian drones. It would be more difficult for NATO to react.
- At some stage, a NATO country is in flames. What happens next is decisive. If nothing happens, it means that NATO will cease to exist, says Davlikanova.
- I don't mean to strike back against Russian cities, but to respond in kind, like a blockade against Kaliningrad, for example.
The fortunes of war have turned against Russia in 2026. Ukraine has stepped up its drone attacks deep inside Russia. At the same time, the Russian invasion forces are advancing very slowly in eastern Ukraine.
- Just because Putin is stuck in eastern Ukraine does not mean that he did not intend to escalate, says Davlikanova.
- Ukraine and Russia have developed at the same pace in terms of technological innovation. Only Ukraine and Russia have mastered drone warfare. Europe must not underestimate Russia.
Russian President Vladimir Putin has not wanted to negotiate peace in Ukraine. He wants Ukraine to surrender. Davlikanova warns Europe to think there will be peace if Putin gets his way in Ukraine.
- It would be suicide for Europe to sacrifice Ukraine. It is not a regional conflict. It is a symptom that spreads to the rest of Europe if no one stops Putin, says Davlikanova.
- Russia would annex Ukraine, kill half the population and recruit the other half to the Russian military in the same way as in other areas.
Putin has committed himself to the war in Ukraine. It is no longer a "military special operation" from the Kremlin's point of view, but an existential war against the West.
- Putin cannot end the war. There would be a lot of questions about the costs of the war. He would most likely be killed. So he has to keep fighting, says Davlikanova.
Several military analysts have pointed out that Russia's military is stronger than in 2022, has more experience and more technological excellence. At the same time, the US is busy with the Iran war, President Donald Trump wants to reduce the military presence in Europe and in the long term, the US is focusing more on Southeast Asia and China.
- There is no army in Europe that can stand against Russia at the moment, says Davlikanova.
