Russia's new drone strategy: Bets on jet drones and air war to force Ukraine to its knees

The Russian-modified Iranian drones, with jet engines that provide flight speeds of 600 km/h, have changed the dynamics of the war. They are still cheap weapons that Russia can mass produce, but that Ukraine cannot shoot down to the same extent as the slow drones.

The new ones are used in combination with the devastating ballistic missiles, which can only be shot down with the Patriot robots, of which Ukraine is woefully short,

The jet drones were introduced in April, and according to Ukrainian intelligence, Russia is now scaling up production and spending the equivalent of around SEK 120 billion on this.

In recent weeks, Russia has also shifted from nocturnal attacks to bombing the Ukrainian capital almost daily, and around the clock, paralyzing the activities of everyday life. Transport systems, energy infrastructure, food warehouses and other civilian infrastructure have also been systematically bombed.

According to the American think tank ISW, which follows the war with daily analyzes of the developments, there are also many indications that this is Putin's new strategy, to fully invest in an air war with massive strikes with jet drones and ballistic robots.

The aim is to force Ukraine to capitulate during the winter of 2026-2027.

ISW bases its conclusions on public information, including what military bloggers linked to the Kremlin write, where they emphasize that the front is largely at a standstill.

"Putin is possibly reassessing his previous theory of victory, which was based on the fact that Russia can continue to advance indefinitely until it achieves its goal, or until Ukraine surrenders," writes ISW.

As an example, on September 27, Russia attacked Odessa, Mykolaiv and Kiev with jet-powered Geran-5 drones, and that Ukraine's lack of air defenses allows Russia to continue in the same way, increasing the number of targets. The new strategy is causing great economic damage in Ukraine, but the airstrikes must be kept at a high pace.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy recently stated that it is shooting down 55 percent of the jet drones, 1,500 out of 2,730 so far in September.

He also said that several prototypes of defense drones that can shoot them back have been developed. Now Ukraine is fighting against the clock to be able to mass produce and deploy them in battle, which is expected to happen within a couple of months.

"It remains unclear whether Ukraine's interceptor program can be scaled up in time to counter the intensified Russian campaign during the winter," ISW writes.

The think tank also points to Putin saying that "Ukraine must feel Russia's retaliation", which is also interpreted as meaning that they will intensify the attacks this winter.

There are also economic and political reasons to fully invest in robotic and drone warfare from the air, as it will be cheaper than a second mobilization, a move that would also be very unpopular in Russia.

ISW does not believe that Putin is interested in peace negotiations until he has tried the new strategy.