Most things point to S-leader Magdalena Andersson being tasked with trying to form a new government. Ahead of the final count this week, her side leads with 176 seats to 173.
But the road to an S-led government can be difficult. A key figure in that process will be the new Speaker, who will be elected on Monday 28 September. After that, Ulf Kristersson can be tried in the Riksdag. As early as Tuesday, September 29, he can be voted out.
It is not improbable that S demands that it happen so quickly, given that they have already called on Ulf Kristersson to resign.
- If this is the election result, the Swedish people have rejected his alternative and voted no to it. It is obvious that he is now instead trying to cling on, says Tobias Baudin, party secretary for S.
For the Social Democrats, the election result means that the party can once again take over the Speaker's post in the Riksdag. The last time it happened was in the years 2014–2018 when Urban Ahlin was chairman.
S's basic position is that the largest party should have the Speaker's post. According to DN's information, S has not changed his mind on that issue. Thus, Andreas Norlén's days as chairman would be numbered.
Who will be the next speaker is, however, an open question. There are a number of experienced S members in the Riksdag who may be relevant. Some names mentioned in this context are the current deputy speaker Kenneth G Forslund, school policy spokesperson Anders Ygeman and foreign policy spokesperson Morgan Johansson.
S would like to see that the next speaker does not involve himself more than necessary in the upcoming government formation process. The party believes that the latest processes have been too ceremonial. 2018 in particular was characterized by many and long speaker rounds that led to a record-long government formation, and S therefore wants the parties themselves to take greater responsibility.
You sometimes hear that there is a practice in the speaker question - the problem is that there are two. One is that the job should go to someone in the Riksdag's largest party, i.e. the Social Democrats. The moderates, on the other hand, claim the principle of the largest party in the largest constellation. Both principles have been applied.
It was the speaker election in 2018 that made the post more controversial - and at the same time more famous. Then the situation was extremely unclear after the election. The Social Democrats were the largest party and claimed the Speaker's job for that reason.
But there was still no ready majority that could push through the demand. The Center and the Liberals were still loyal to the bourgeois alliance.
Here the Moderates saw a chance to win a consolation prize and nominated Andreas Norlén. This was long before the time of the Tidö Agreement, but the Sweden Democrats did not mind backing M and giving S a swindle. So it became Norlén.
On the other hand, the SD themselves were snubbed for a deputy speaker position. Their then group leader Mattias Karlsson gave a high-pitched speech in the chamber about the merits of party colleague Björn Söder. Karlsson also championed the principle that SD, as the third largest party, should get a post.
Then it was V leader Jonas Sjöstedt's turn to see an opening. He was supported by S for his candidate and thus SD was blocked.
When the dust of the battle settled, Andreas Norlén soon acquired a popularity like few other speakers. The long and complicated government formation that followed made him a television celebrity. His aptitude for reciting poetry on live air made its mark.
Norlén's popularity contributed to his re-election in 2022, but above all, S preferred him to someone from SD.
The question is how the speaker election develops this time. Will it be drama like 2018, or just a simple club beat?
