Saxony-Anhalt elects new state parliament: AfD could come to power in the state for the first time

The election campaign is over, now the decision has been made: a new state parliament will be elected in Saxony-Anhalt today. Around 1.7 million people are called to vote. Like never before, the election campaign and the possible alliance options received attention beyond the small federal state. For the first time, the AfD, which is classified as right-wing extremist by the Office for the Protection of the Constitution in Saxony-Anhalt, could come to power in a federal state.

A coalition of CDU, SPD and FDP currently governs Magdeburg. However, according to all polls, the alliance will lose its majority. The AfD is likely to be by far the strongest force.

In the last survey before the election, the AfD with top candidate Ulrich Siegmund got 41 percent. Prime Minister Sven Schulze's CDU was at 23 percent in the survey published on Thursday by the Elections Research Group on behalf of ZDF. The Left followed in third place with 11.5 percent, the SPD had 8.5 percent, and the Greens had 6 percent. The BSW with 4 percent and the FDP with 3 percent were below the five percent hurdle. 26 percent of those surveyed said in the survey that they were not yet sure who or whether they wanted to vote.

Nobody wants to go with the AfD - and the AfD only wants to go alone

If the AfD does not achieve an absolute majority, it would have to rely on alliance partners to come to government. But: None of the other parties want to form a coalition with her. Siegmund, in turn, recently confirmed that he will only stand for election as head of government if his party wins an absolute majority and can govern alone.

If the AfD misses this goal, a CDU-led minority government could come into play. However, this could rely on votes from the left - similar to Saxony and Thuringia. The problem: In a party conference resolution, the CDU rejects a coalition and “similar forms of cooperation” with the Left as well as with the AfD.

Schulze's dream scenario of a majority for the so-called center parties - such as the CDU, SPD and Greens - seems very unlikely given the polls.

The duel between Schulze and Siegmund

The CDU top candidate has only been head of government since January following the resignation of Reiner Haseloff. Schulze was therefore unable to benefit from the incumbent bonus to the same extent as a long-standing head of government. When asked who they would rather have as Prime Minister, the incumbent came in with 48 percent in the last poll by the Elections Research Group, but clearly ahead of the AfD's top candidate Siegmund (34 percent), who was celebrated like a pop star in many of his election campaign appearances.

What happens after the election?

In two weeks there will be elections in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania and Berlin. Just as now in Saxony-Anhalt, it is also about the effects on federal politics. Chancellor Friedrich Merz recently rejected speculation that he could be forced out of office by his own party if there was a debacle for the CDU in the September elections.

The first session of the new state parliament of Saxony-Anhalt must take place no later than the 30th day after the election, which is October 6th. Then the terms of office of the ministers and the head of government also end. However, according to the constitution, they are obliged to continue running the business until their successors take over. There is no deadline by which a new head of government must be elected, but there are deadlines for possible further elections if the first and subsequent rounds fail.