São Paulo The vacancy rate of high-end logistics warehouses in the country reached the lowest level in the last three years and fell to 3.2% in the third quarter of this year, compared to 4.3% in the previous three months, according to a survey by consultancy Cushman & Wakefield.
The drop was driven by strong business demand, mainly from the e-commerce market, which generated a net absorption — the area occupied in the period after discounting returns — of 599 thousand m² in the quarter and 1.55 million m² in the year to September.
Mercado Livre appears in six of the nine largest rentals of the period listed by Cushman, totaling around 248 thousand m², a volume equivalent to approximately 31% of the entire area rented in the country in the quarter.
One of the largest e-commerce platforms in the country, the company fully occupied the BTG Log Cajamar warehouses (54.9 thousand m²), owned by the BTG Log AAA Cajamar FII fund, the HGLG Itupeva (28.6 thousand m²), owned by Pátria Log, and the XPEX Contagem (47.9 thousand m²), in Minas Gerais, owned by XP Exeter II FII. It also rented 45.4 thousand m² of the 58.9 thousand m² of CL Castelo Branco, in Barueri.
The country's main market, the state of São Paulo recorded net absorption of 439.5 thousand m² in the quarter, and vacancy fell from 3.9% to 2.7%.
Cajamar, a region that has the largest stock of high-standard logistics warehouses in the country, led the absorptions, with 192.1 thousand m², followed by Jundiaí (109.1 thousand m²), Barueri (62.4 thousand m²) and Embu (59.7 thousand m²).
According to Cushman & Wakefield, among the leases with tenants identified in the state, the commerce, wholesale and retail sector led, with 183.8 thousand m², followed by logistics (126.7 thousand m²) and information and communication (45.5 thousand m²).
While Cajamar, Barueri and Jundiaí registered large leased areas, Sorocaba and Guarulhos registered negative net absorption, which the consultancy attributes to "specific return movements", especially in Guarulhos, which suffered from low availability in the previous quarter, limiting new leases.
The state received 259.4 thousand m² in new deliveries in the quarter, bringing the accumulated figure for 2026 to 619.9 thousand m². Cajamar concentrated the largest volume (109.8 thousand m²), followed by Barueri (58.9 thousand m²), Guarulhos (50.8 thousand m²) and Jundiaí (28.6 thousand m²), which has a vacancy rate of 0.1%.
With lower availability, the average price in the state rose from R$32.62/m² to R$37.42/m². In the capital, prices were R$35/m². In Cajamar they were R$46.4/m², followed by Guarulhos (R$44.5/m²) and Embu (R$38.21/m²). Campinas and Jundiaí appear as the most competitive alternatives, with prices around R$24/m².
The indicator reflects the value announced by owners for vacant areas, not the rents actually contracted. Cushman states that part of the increase in Cajamar is due to the entry of vacant area into an expensive development.
"The results reinforce the strength of the São Paulo market, which combines strong absorption, reduced vacancy and price appreciation, maintaining favorable prospects for high-end logistics assets", states Cushman & Wakefield.
Outside of São Paulo, Minas Gerais absorbed 70.4 thousand m², with a vacancy rate of 1.6%. Rio de Janeiro recovered, with 71.9 thousand m² absorbed and vacancy falling from 12.2% to 10.3%, still the highest among large markets. In the west zone of Rio, 36.4% of the area remains unoccupied.
The scenario may change in the coming months. According to Cushman, São Paulo should receive almost 700 thousand m² by the end of 2026, more than double that delivered in the third quarter, in addition to 462 thousand m² in 2027. Among the largest projects are Marq Guarulhos II, in Arujá, with 245 thousand m², and WTLog Franco da Rocha, with 148 thousand m².
The Guarulhos region is already showing signs of accommodation. There was a negative net absorption of 16.1 thousand m² in the quarter — considered unusual by the consultancy —, and Brookfield's Aero II Logistics Park, with 50.8 thousand m², was delivered without an occupant. As a result, local vacancy rates rose to 4%. Sorocaba also recorded a negative balance of 21 thousand m², due to a large return.
