Saxony-Anhalt state election: AfD poised to make history as first far-right party to lead German state government

It's rare that a state parliament election in Germany attracts as much media interest as this one in Saxony-Anhalt. On Sunday, the 1.7 million eligible voters in the eastern German state will decide whether the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) party can form a state government for the first time.

There hasn't been a head of government who belonged to a proven far-right party in post-World War II Germany — at neither federal nor state level. That would change if AfD lead candidate Ulrich Siegmund were to be elected to this position, since the Office for the Protection of the Constitution in Saxony-Anhalt already classified the AfD as such in 2023.

Siegmund's chances of a historical triumph are high: For months, the AfD has been comfortably leading the polls with well over 40% of the vote.

AfD, CDU and Left Party will get into parliament

Aside from the AfD, there are only two other parties that can count on being included in the next state parliament: The conservative Christian Democratic Union (CDU) of current State Premier Sven Schulze and the socialist Left Party, which is traditionally strong in eastern Germany, the former socialist GDR.

All other parties have cause for concern: they could fail to reach the 5% threshold of votes necessary for entry into parliaments in Germany.

This even applies to the center-left Social Democrats (SPD), who currently form part of the federal government coalition with the CDU and its Bavarian counterpart, the Christian Social Union (CSU).

SPD, Greens, FDP, BSW might not make the 5% mark

The SPD is losing popularity nationwide. In Saxony-Anhalt, they are polling below the 8% they won five years ago.

The third party in Saxony-Anhalt's current governing coalition, formed in 2021, has even fewer hopes: The neoliberal Free Democrats (FDP) are polling only about 3%. Following the FDP's failure in the Bundestag general election of 2025 and multiple defeats at the state level, supporters are bracing themselves for the next setback.

The environmentalist Greens may also not return to the state parliament. The party, whose core voter base is in wealthy western German cities, is vehemently rejected by many voters in rural areas because of its climate policies and multicultural vision of society.

Concern over Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance

And then there is the Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW), founded in 2024 by its namesake, a former Left Party co-leader. The party is economically left-leaning, but socially right-wing conservative and populist. This is its first time participating in a state election in Saxony-Anhalt.

After the BSW gained 6.2% of the vote in the European Parliament elections in 2024 and won results of between about 12% and 16% in the eastern German states of Brandenburg, Saxony and Thuringia during its first year, it failed by only a few thousand votes to reach the 5% hurdle to enter German parliament in the 2025 general election.

The BSW never really recovered from this setback, and it went on to be defeated in three further state parliament elections. The party also has cause for concern in Saxony-Anhalt, where it has been polling under 5%.

Should it win representation after all, Sahra Wagenknecht has already announced that her party's lawmakers would not vote an AfD premier into office, but abstain from the vote — paving the way for him to win a majority in parliament and take office.

Considering the poor polling numbers for the BSW in Saxony-Anhalt, political scientist Oliver Lembcke speaks of an "endgame" for the party as a whole.

Small parties could prevent absolute majority for AfD

The fact is: The more parties fail to reach the threshold, the higher the likelihood that the Alternative for Germany will be able to govern alone.

On the other hand, if aside from the AfD, the CDU, Left Party and SPD win representation in the next Saxony-Anhalt parliament, and those three parties together hold more seats than the AfD, the situation is complicated. In 2018, the CDU adopted a so-called "resolution of incompatibility," which rejects cooperation with both the AfD and the Left Party.

If the CDU sticks to this resolution, forming even a minority government would be very difficult, perhaps impossible.

Could the CDU form a minority government?

Political scientist Lembcke from Ruhr University Bochum argues that the CDU should have adapted its incompatibility resolution to the changed conditions of the party systems and political landscape. Because it has failed to do so, this issue could now escalate drastically in Saxony-Anhalt.

The Left Party is prepared to support State Premier Sven Schulze of the CDU to secure a second term.

"In recent years, we, the Left Party, have shown that we take responsibility for this country. Especially when it comes to inhibiting the AfD," Left Party co-leader Luigi Pantisano told television broadcaster ZDF.

Pantisano pointed to the states of Thuringia and Saxony, where the CDU leads coalition governments without a parliamentary majority and depends on the support of the Left Party.

Given the foreseeably complicated situation, one thing is clear ahead of the September 6 election: either Saxony-Anhalt faces an incredibly difficult coalition-building process, or the state will be governed by the AfD — if the party profits from the failure of many small parties and thereby receives an absolute majority in the state parliament.

This article was originally written in German.