Autumn is here - and time is running out for the black-red coalition. In the summer, the Union and the SPD had promised a joint departure. The coalition partners agreed on 34 projects in July to advance Germany economically and socially. The important reforms should be launched by Christmas.
At the time, Chancellor Friedrich Merz was confident. “We want to get Germany back on track. It is now clear that this is possible,” said the CDU politician in the garden of the Chancellery.
But three months later, not everything is clear. When it comes to pensions, there is a dispute about the deduction-free pension after 45 years of contributions, and important questions also remain unanswered when it comes to care. Tax policy projects also cause discussions. Although the first projects have already been launched, there is still a lot to be done with the agreed reform package.
The economy is pushing for reforms
The German economy is following developments with growing concern. Peter Leibinger, President of the Federation of German Industries (BDI), sees no trend reversal despite positive signals. The unexpected economic growth this year will be driven, among other things, by exports and the infrastructure package. However, this has not stopped the structural decline in industry.
“The decline - I put it so dramatically - continues,” says Leibinger. Around 15,000 jobs are lost in the industry every month, and at the same time the number of bankruptcies is increasing. In the past seven years, Germany has lost around 15 percent of its industrial production volume. High costs for labor, energy and taxes as well as bureaucracy burdened companies in Germany.
For Leibinger it is therefore clear: "We actually need the reforms that everyone is talking about." Otherwise, not only would the economic base continue to shrink - financing the welfare state and other state tasks would also become more difficult.
It's not just the reform course that is under pressure
But this week the coalition is not just concerned with economic policy projects. The trust between the Union and the SPD is also being put to the test - with the election of the AfD politician Tobias Rausch as President of the State Parliament of Saxony-Anhalt.
Rausch received 48 votes in a secret ballot on Tuesday. The AfD and the Alliance Sahra Wagenknecht (BSW) together have 44 seats. It is not clear where the additional votes came from. Suspicion is also directed at members of the CDU, whose parliamentary group leadership had called for abstention. The Union rejects speculation about the specific voting behavior.
SPD sees breach of trust
For the SPD, the process is still a breach of trust. Defense Minister Boris Pistorius (SPD) was horrified and publicly asked what was going on in the CDU Saxony-Anhalt. The dispute extends beyond state politics: in Berlin there is a discussion about how reliable the Union's demarcation from the AfD is.
The SPD parliamentary group reacted on Tuesday evening with a spontaneous protest march through Berlin. The MPs marched from the Bundestag via the Brandenburg Gate to Bebelplatz - without their coalition partner. The National Socialists burned books on the square in 1933. With the protest, the SPD wanted to send a signal against political developments in Saxony-Anhalt and for the defense of basic democratic values.
The action also shows how deep the mistrust between the coalition partners has now reached. While the SPD expects clarification from the Union, the CDU warns against drawing untested conclusions from the results of a secret election.
What holds a coalition together
Two politicians know from their own experience how political cooperation can work despite different interests - and why it fails: Volker Kauder, former chairman of the CDU/CSU parliamentary group, and Peer Steinbrück, former SPD chairman and Federal Finance Minister.
Kauder warns against public provocations. “The coalition partners are not allowed to constantly parade each other in public, nor are they allowed to constantly provoke each other,” he says. Conflicts must first be resolved among each other. The former SPD parliamentary group leader Peter Struck once told him: "If you demand something in public that I didn't know before, then you can forget about it straight away and it won't happen."
Peer Steinbrück also believes it is crucial that the coalition partners resolve their conflicts internally and then act together. "Internally they can argue, as far as I'm concerned they can argue, but externally they have to appear at some point, even at midnight, and say, we've decided this, we'll implement it, together, without us questioning it again afterwards."
Because if partners continually put each other under public pressure, it becomes more difficult to find compromises and then stand up for them together. This can be a problem for a government that has undertaken an extensive reform program.
Coalition committee without new resolutions
Against this background, the leaders of the Union and SPD met on Wednesday evening in the Chancellery for the coalition committee. They discussed the further reform course and the budget for 2027 for around four hours. They then did not announce any new concrete reform decisions. The coalition said the talks took place in a good and constructive atmosphere. It was also about improving how we interact with each other and coordinating the future timetable.
After the meeting, the Chancellor was confident that the agreements from the coalition agreement and from July 1st will remain the basis for further government work. However, Merz had to make compromises when it came to the schedule: the Chancellor no longer believes it is realistic to launch the most important reforms by Christmas. But he hopes that the plans will be “in the clear” by spring of next year.
Reforms also need to be explained
But to win support for reforms, the government must also explain why changes are necessary - and where they should lead.
Peer Steinbrück calls for the dimensions and consequences of the turning point to be clearly stated. Volker Kauder puts it similarly: "It has to be explained to people why it is necessary, what the goal is, why we are doing it."
BDI President misses positive vision
BDI President Leibinger also sees a political failure here. So far, the main thing associated with reforms is the fear of losing something. "When you hear reforms, you think: They want to take something away from me," he says. There is a lack of a convincing idea of where the country should develop.
"What kind of country do we want to build together? This history or narrative, as they say in modern German, is missing," says Leibinger. The government must convey this perspective - and have the courage to implement necessary changes.
This means that there are two tasks side by side: The coalition must make decisions and at the same time explain why they are necessary. And it must show that it remains capable of acting despite its conflicts.
In the summer, a lot of things sounded like a new beginning. Now time is running out - for reforms and for a coalition that must deliver together.
