SEMI预测全球半导体市场2030年将突破2万亿美元，AI基础设施需求是主要驱动力

Semiconductor Equipment and Materials International senior director of market intelligence Clark Tseng speaks at a news conference in Taipei yesterday. Photo: CNA

/ Staff writer, with CNA

The global semiconductor market is expected to be worth more than US$2 trillion by 2030 because of growth driven by demand for artificial intelligence （AI） infrastructure, SEMI senior director of market intelligence Clark Tseng （曾瑞榆） said yesterday.

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Earlier projections had put the market at about US$1 trillion by 2030 based on demand for traditional applications such as personal computers, smartphones and consumer electronics, Tseng said at a news conference in Taipei ahead of the opening of Semicon Taiwan trade show today.

Those forecasts have since changed significantly, as AI data centers drive demand for advanced logic chips, high-bandwidth memory （HBM） and enterprise solid-state drives （SSDs）, he said.

The market is expected to surpass US$1.5 trillion this year, but the growth is not broad-based, with PC and smartphone shipments remaining under pressure despite semiconductor demand outpacing overall economic and investment growth, he added.

“AI is reshaping semiconductor growth, driving sustained demand for advanced logic, HBM and DRAM, high-layer-count NAND, testing and advanced packaging equipment,” Tseng said.

SEMI expects the global wafer fab equipment market to grow to US$220 billion in 2028 from US$117 billion last year, up from its previous forecast of US$200 billion.

The association has also raised its 2028 forecasts for testing equipment to US$23.5 billion from US$20.8 billion and for packaging equipment to US$10 billion from US$8.6 billion, Tseng said.

The revisions reflect stronger investment in 2-nanometer and 3-nanometer production capacity, as well as rising demand for HBM, enterprise SSDs, and more complex chip testing and packaging, he said.

The global semiconductor materials market is expected to post double-digit growth this year and next year, reaching US$83 billion and US$92 billion respectively, Tseng said.

Taiwan is expected to account for about 30 percent of the market next year, reflecting its importance in advanced manufacturing and packaging, he said.

On the same occasion, Tien Wu （吳田玉）, chair of the SEMI international board of directors and chief executive officer of ASE Technology Holding Co （日月光投控）, said the rapid expansion of AI is creating stress on Taiwan’s resources.

The ecosystem required to meet strong AI demand is creating short-term pressure on land, talent, capital and electricity in the nation, while also raising concerns in other countries about the concentration of semiconductor production in Taiwan, Wu said.

However, AI’s long-term value would not come from replacing existing human knowledge, but from enabling cross-disciplinary innovation and replicating successful applications on a much larger scale, he said.

Taiwan should therefore accelerate investment in AI infrastructure while strengthening ties with international partners and explaining the purpose of that investment more clearly, he added.

新聞來源：TAIPEI TIMES

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