Sigrid Melchior: The fear of Le Pen can decide the fight for EU money

The evening before Thursday's EU summit, there was a press conference that particularly attracted the Brussels media: the queen of the French far-right, Marine Le Pen - even though she herself would not participate in the summit.

Before a large press gathering, she called the EU leaders' attempt to agree on the EU's next seven-year budget before the French presidential election "illegitimate" and "an attempt to prevent democratic elections".

And of course the French election is an informal deadline for EU leaders. The EU budget does not expire until the end of 2027, but once the election campaign gets under way at the beginning of next year, it will be impossible to reach an agreement with France.

Every seven years, the EU must club together a joint, gigantic budget. At Thursday's EU summit, a tentative attempt was made to agree on a new compromise proposal, but it was a clear no.

Sweden, Denmark, Germany and a handful of other rich countries in northern Europe want to reduce the budget, mainly in agricultural and regional aid, in order to be able to afford defense and industrial investments.

The relatively poor countries in Eastern and Central Europe instead protect a large EU budget and refuse such cuts.

The picture is complicated: Countries such as France and Belgium belong to the rich group but also want the EU to finance new investments with joint loans or new EU taxes.

The only thing that unites all countries is that they are currently dissatisfied.

But history shows that the leaders of the EU countries eventually come to an agreement, no matter how deadlocked the situation may seem.

The alternative is actually worse: that the previous budget rolls on, year after year, without the possibility of financing new EU investments.

History also shows that EU leaders never budge on their positions until the last moment.

Therefore, an EU summit around the turn of the year will probably be the decisive clash. Then the countries will start to compromise.

For the decisive summit, the heads of state and government pack twice as many clean shirts and blouses as the number of meeting days requires, empty their calendars and let the visiting diplomats sleep in shifts in the meeting rooms. Then they drive on until no one can take it anymore - and club the best possible deal.

For the Swedish part, it is then a question of prioritizing between two strong wishes: keeping down the Swedish EU fee or directing the direction of the budget where one wishes. Historically speaking, the Swedish government usually chooses the taxpayers - and drops the demands for a "modern" EU budget.

The horror scenario, which no one wants to say outright, is that Marine Le Pen becomes the next president of France and with a veto in her hand, the entire EU budget negotiation collapses.

She wants to stop the EU's support for Ukraine. And has already flagged that she intends to halve the French EU contribution in 2027, in other words a completely sonic disregard for the rules that apply to the current long-term budget – an open provocation and invitation to an EU fight.