After the election results in Saxony-Anhalt, the SPD questions the federal government's reform course

Many people in Saxony-Anhalt are afraid. At least that's what Lars Klingbeil says. This is how the SPD chairman interprets the AfD election results in the eastern German state on Sunday evening. And he has two interpretations for this fear: Those who did not vote for the AfD were afraid of the strength of the right-wing populists. And what's more, almost every citizen is afraid of the federal government's reform course.

Only a short time after the first forecasts for the state elections in Saxony-Anhalt were published, Klingbeil intervened on this point and promised corrections to the reform course that the federal government had only recently and with great pain agreed on.

Social Democratic doubts about the reform course are likely to be a significant burden for the coalition in the coming days - resistance is already forming in the Union. Because if the reform course is not maintained, doubts about cooperation with the SPD are likely to grow.

The result is also a “signal to Berlin” and a “reason to also think about politics here in Berlin, about the federal government’s reform course,” said Klingbeil on Sunday evening. We now have to talk about the substantive politics. He was joined by Secretary General Tim Klüssendorf. He mentioned the planned pension and care reforms as well as the preparation of the federal budget as topics that needed to be discussed. The SPD politicians did not say exactly what corrections they had in mind.

In fact, the post-election surveys show that the reform course is unpopular among voters in Saxony-Anhalt. 88 percent of those surveyed by the Elections Research Group said that the AfD would not be so strong if the federal government made better policies. 92 percent of SPD supporters said this. Not even one in three people surveyed by Infratest dimap stated that the federal government should implement social reforms in pensions and health even in the face of resistance.

Klingbeil's backpedaling is still surprising. Not just because he had at times tried to portray himself as the SPD's great reformer. But also because the election evening ended relatively well for the SPD and on a poor level. The Social Democrats were able to slightly improve their election result in Saxony-Anhalt, to a good nine percent - even if many may have only voted for the SPD for tactical reasons in order to prevent an absolute majority for the AfD.

Nevertheless, for once the pressure on Klingbeil and his co-chair Bärbel Bas did not increase any further on this election evening. But something else happened. The brutal crash of the CDU in Saxony-Anhalt also made an impression on the coalition partner in the federal government. The SPD sees fewer and fewer reasons to join the Union's projects in terms of content and to make painful compromises - when even CDU Prime Ministers like Sven Schulze reject these, keyword free pension after 45 years of contributions.

It therefore seems possible that the federal government will now untie the laboriously tied-up reform package again. Until now, the motto at the SPD leadership had been: Let the eastern election campaigners, such as Manuela Schwesig in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, calmly campaign against the pension reform. The draft law from Labor Minister and SPD leader Bas will only be available after the election date anyway.

But now dissatisfaction could build up in the SPD over the already unpopular reforms. Of all people, Bas was the one who, in contrast to her co-chairman Klingbeil, formulated less stormy consequences on Sunday. She said she would present a bill on pensions. The Bundestag will then discuss it. Result open.

The Union tried hard not to let the house of cards collapse on election night. The new parliamentary group leader Thorsten Frei (CDU) spoke of a dramatic result for his party. “This is a turning point for our country.” He also said that people did not feel supported in many areas and that the federal government would have to “look at things very closely”.

Nevertheless, Frei defended the reform course. The reforms are not being carried out out of “great desire for it”, but “because it is necessary in order to be able to secure them in the long term”. Like Franziska Hoppermann, the CDU general secretary, Frei pointed out that the chancellor and the federal government were elected for four years in order to prevent a debate about the CDU chairman Friedrich Merz. It is important to remain stable in this situation, said Frei.

Hoppermann said: “It is now up to us and the coalition to implement the joint projects together and consistently.” It is important for her “and for my party that we complete the reforms in a unified and consistent manner and move on, because it is obvious that the social systems are not sustainable at the point where they are now,” said Hoppermann. The reforms must be adhered to, said Alexander Hoffmann, the CSU regional group leader.

There had recently been doubts in the Union as to whether the agreed reforms could be implemented jointly and consistently with the SPD. There was disappointment over the agreed tax reform as well as over the upcoming budget for 2027. The debate about it begins this Monday in the Bundestag when the MPs return from the summer break. Merz wants to give a speech about this in the Bundestag on Wednesday.

Until then, he will still be able to listen to a lot in his own party, first in the meeting of the presidium and then in the larger circle of the board on Monday morning. It remains to be seen whether the concern about the reforms and the frustration with the SPD can divert some of the frustration in the party about its own course and the Chancellor. Because there is great dissatisfaction, the cabinet reshuffle had already shown this before the summer break. But how would weakening Merz help advance the reforms?

Due to the election results in Magdeburg and the BSW's entry into the state parliament, the CDU could at least be spared the discussion about how to deal with the Left Party for the time being - if it assigns the mandate to form a government to the AfD, as individual CDU politicians did on election evening. According to previous plans, Merz is scheduled to appear in front of the press at 1:30 p.m. with the failed CDU top candidate from Saxony-Anhalt, Sven Schulze.

It was already apparent before the bitter election evening for his CDU that the Chancellor could become very fundamental. On Saturday, Merz spoke at a campaign event near Hanover. Local elections are coming up in Lower Saxony.

Merz called for thinking about a new direction after the elections and asking the question of intergenerational justice. He spoke of “prosperity for all generations”. We must work harder to give not only our own, but also the next generation and the generation after that the chance to live in freedom, peace, prosperity and with a high degree of social justice. A new narrative is needed, a new story about where we actually want to go, he said. That didn't sound like a willingness to compromise on pensions.