Stocks mixed as bond yields surge and oil climbs amid Middle East war stalemate

Stock markets mostly fell and oil prices climbed on Thursday as US Treasury bond yields hit multi-year highs, driven partly by a lack of progress in ending the Middle East war.

On Friday (Sept. 25, 2026) Asian shares traded flat to mixed, as investors weighed a relentless global bond selloff and elevated crude oil prices near $105–$107 a barrel against regional holiday closures.

Japan's Nikkei rose 1%, while Hong Kong's Hang Seng skidded 1% and Australia dipped 0.6%, with markets in mainland China, Taiwan, and South Korea closed.

After a down day in Europe, Wall Street stocks began the session firmly in negative territory, but received a positive jolt around midday with a Reuters report that Washington and Tehran had made headway on an accord to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.

"It felt like that lasted for an hour-and-a-half," said B. Riley Wealth Management's Art Hogan, adding that markets need greater evidence of concrete movement towards a deal.

While stocks leveled off after the positive jump, both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq finished essentially flat. The Dow finished modestly lower.

But the benchmark US 10-year Treasury yield rose to its highest level since 2007, and the 30-year yield reached its highest since 2004 as oil prices jumped.

"It is rare to get movements this volatile in sovereign bond markets, which is another sign that sovereign debt is going through an uncomfortable adjustment period," said Kathleen Brooks, research director at XTB.

"These things together are anathema to the bond market and it is no surprise that yields are rising," she said.

The rise in US yields also reflects solid economic data and rising expectations for additional tightening of monetary policy.

Futures markets are betting with around 70 percent odds that the Federal Reserve will increase interest rates in October.

Such expectations drove 30-year US fixed-rate mortgages to more than 7.0 percent, a drag on consumers hoping to buy homes.

Investors were also keeping an eye on a meeting between US President Donald Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping at the White House on Thursday, where discussion topics are expected to include trade, technological competition -- particularly in AI -- and Beijing's diplomatic and economic support for Tehran.

In his opening remarks with Trump, Xi warned that the development of artificial intelligence should be "always under human control" -- in contrast to Trump, who has repeatedly dismissed warnings that AI could threaten humanity itself.

Later as they met in the Oval Office, Xi urged Trump to show "prudence" and oppose independence for the flashpoint of Taiwan, the self-governing island that Beijing claims. The comments came after the US president gave his Chinese counterpart a lavish welcome to the White House.