Stocks Rally as Fed Rate Hopes Rise Ahead of Key Inflation Data

Every weekday, the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer releases the Homestretch — an actionable afternoon update, just in time for the last hour of trading on Wall Street. Stocks are rallying on Thursday, with the S & P 500 on pace for its best session since early August. Even though U.S. oil benchmark WTI crude is trading slightly higher amid ongoing uncertainty over the war in Iran, stocks are taking their cue from market interest rates. Treasury yields fell on Wednesday after Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller said he's in favor of keeping interest rates steady as long as there are no surprises in the upcoming inflation data. That clarity should come with the release of next week's August producer price index (PPI) and consumer price index (CPI) reports. While Waller is only one Fed member and his views may or may not be in the majority, his words are having a significant impact on rate hike expectations. It's now roughly a coin flip on what the Fed will do at its Sept. 15-16 meeting, with the odds of a hike falling to 52% from 63% on Wednesday, according to the CME Group's FedWatch tool. Enterprise software stocks were some of the biggest gainers in the market on Thursday. The group has had a terrific run since late July on signs that AI won't disintermediate their businesses, and in the wake of the forced unwind of Situational Awareness, a levered hedge fund betting against the group. Club names Microsoft and Salesforce have both participated in the software comeback. Microsoft is now up about 25% since reporting earnings on July 29, while Salesforce has rallied 29% since its Aug. 26 earnings report. Both stocks have taken out our price targets, but we're not inclined to sell at the current price. For Microsoft, we think the company is getting credit for not spending all its operating cash flow on building out its AI infrastructure, and we've been pleasantly by the traction Microsoft 365 Copilot has gained. Salesforce's annual Dreamforce conference is in two weeks, and the event usually leads to a lot of new contracts. Salesforce booked an incredible list of speakers across AI and many other industries. After watching their price-to-earnings multiples shrink in the first half of the year due to AI disruption concerns, both stocks are seeing multiple expansion again. We are increasing our Microsoft price target to $550 from $500 and our Salesforce price target to $290 from $250. After the closing bell on Thursday, Docusign , Zscaler , and Lululemon are set to report earnings. There may be no major earnings reports before the opening bell on Friday, but it is jobs day. The economy is expected to have added 65,000 jobs in August, according to economists polled by FactSet. The unemployment rate is expected to increase 0.1% from July to 4.2%. While the jobs report is always the single most important economic data point of the month, the stakes are higher than usual since we're coming off a negative 23,000 print in July. A strong jobs report with positive revisions could shake off some concerns about a weakening labor market. (See here for a full list of the stocks in Jim Cramer's Charitable Trust.) As a subscriber to the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer, you will receive a trade alert before Jim makes a trade. Jim waits 45 minutes after sending a trade alert before buying or selling a stock in his charitable trust's portfolio. If Jim has talked about a stock on CNBC TV, he waits 72 hours after issuing the trade alert before executing the trade. THE ABOVE INVESTING CLUB INFORMATION IS SUBJECT TO OUR TERMS AND CONDITIONS AND PRIVACY POLICY , TOGETHER WITH OUR DISCLAIMER . NO FIDUCIARY OBLIGATION OR DUTY EXISTS, OR IS CREATED, BY VIRTUE OF YOUR RECEIPT OF ANY INFORMATION PROVIDED IN CONNECTION WITH THE INVESTING CLUB. NO SPECIFIC OUTCOME OR PROFIT IS GUARANTEED.