On Bpm the last round of risk, the issue of the government and the assembly

Once Unicredit's takeover failed due to the government's opposition, the attempts to merge with MPS failed and could not withstand the shock wave of Intesa's offer and the opposition of Credit Agricole, it is now up to the French of Banque Verte to try to tie the knot with Banco Bpm, eternal betrothed and highly coveted prey of Italian credit.

The operation, if successful, will close a feverish two-year period for the Italian banking system, the stage of a reorganization carried out through public offers that has redesigned its foundations and of which the Agricole-Bpm operation could represent the last piece.

An earthquake triggered in November 2024 by the offer on Banco Bpm by Unicredit, which two months earlier had begun the takeover of Commerzbank, and continued in January 2025 with the takeover bid which in October of the same year led Mps to storm the Mediobanca fort. The operation - the CEO of MPS, Luigi Lovaglio, who was the architect of that victory, will discover against his will - will lay the foundations for Carlo Messina's takeover bid for Monte, which sees in the fragility of Siena's governance an opportunity to strengthen its primacy in Italy and stabilize the balance of Generali.

At the end of this reorganization which consolidates Intesa as the country's main financial institution, enhances the pan-European profile of Unicredit and crowns the Unipol-Bper conglomerate, which is destined for half of Monte's network, as the third banking hub, the Banco was missing. For which the most awaited and obvious option is now materializing: the integration with Credit Agricole Italia, which became its main shareholder under the benevolent gaze of the government, which had leaned on the French in an anti-Unicredit key.

Banque Verte, which has been in Italy for over 50 years, has grown with institutional foresight in our country to the point of making it its second market. From the marriage with Banco it would more than double, becoming the fourth Italian goal. His proposal received the approval of analysts, who judged it interesting for the Bank, even if there is no shortage of doubts on the market about the transparency of an offer without a takeover bid.

The French will have to overcome two obstacles: the Golden Power - with the government in the awkward position of having to decide whether to give the green light to a foreign bank as elections approach - and the approval of the merger with the whitewash mechanism. To avoid a costly takeover bid, Credit Agricole, which does not shine with excess capital, will need the green light from the majority of the Bank's other shareholders.

"I'll let the economists deal with it", glossed over the deputy prime minister Matteo Salvini, who at the time of the Unicredit takeover branded Gae Aulenti as a "foreign bank". No comments were received from the government, informed by the French shortly after the announcement. The economic manager of the Democratic Party, Antonio Misiani, jokes about the "strategic masterpiece" of the "sorcerers' apprentices of Palazzo Chigi and via XX Settembre" who "wanted to defend the Italian nature of the banks" and risk seeing one of the "most important" under "French" control. "This is the result of the economic sovereignism of Meloni and Giorgetti", echoes Mario Turco from the M5S.