When Ulf Kristersson (M) took office as prime minister four years ago, it was with a clear promise: Sweden would get the climate in order, as it said on the Moderates' election posters. At the same time, fuel prices would go down.
So how did it go?
DN has gone through the statistics on a number of areas related to the climate - and the overall picture is clear. For 30 years, Sweden's emissions had decreased by an average of one million tonnes per year, until the last four years. The result of the past mandate period is that emissions remain roughly at the same level as in 2022, according to the Environmental Protection Agency's assessment.
Paradigm shift is a word that the Tidö parties have been happy to use about their politics in migration and law enforcement. But the Kristersson government has also made a major change in the climate area.
The most obvious thing is that they have paid attention to the motorists who still fill up with petrol and diesel. The Tidö government has fulfilled its promises to lower the "price at the pump".
In 2022, the fuel had become more expensive, for several reasons. Rising oil prices after Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine was the main reason, but the right side pointed out that the climate policy pursued also played a role. They spoke of "Magda prices" and referred to the mixing of biofuel, the so-called reduction obligation, which contributed to diesel in particular becoming more expensive.
Fuel taxes have been lowered in several steps and the use of biofuel reduced. The consequence was that Sweden's emissions rose in 2024.
Admittedly, the emission curve is pointing downwards again, but from a higher level, which has made it more difficult for Sweden to reach the climate goals, according to the Climate Policy Council.
But changes have also taken place in how the climate issue is discussed. The governing parties have begun to question things that were previously widely agreed upon.
Climate Minister Romina Pourmokhtari (L) and others want to scrap the Swedish emissions target for the transport sector and focus entirely on commitments within the EU. Energy Minister Ebba Busch (KD) has equated the Climate Policy Council with "any political debater". When the government's policy is criticized, leading moderates such as Finance Minister Elisabeth Svantesson point out that Sweden has lower emissions per person than most other EU countries. In 2024, only Portugal and Latvia ended up lower.
In addition, Jimmie Åkesson (SD) wants to dismantle parts of the EU's climate policy.
Climate policy is closely intertwined with energy policy and here, too, the years with the Tidö government have meant a shift. For the first time in decades, there are serious plans for new nuclear power in Sweden. It will supply electricity to green industries and electrified transport, but it will take many years. At the same time, the expansion of wind power has stopped.
This is how the climate issue looks like in six central areas when Sweden goes to the elections in 2026:
Increasing emissions a historic trend break
The year 2024 meant a historic trend break: Swedish emissions rose sharply as a direct result of political decisions. After that, emissions began to fall again - but up until this year, Sweden has emitted around 10 million tonnes more than if the reduction had continued at the same rate as before, according to DN's calculations checked by external experts.
The Tidö parties repeatedly claim that emissions in 2026 will be lower than in 2022, but much points to the fact that this will not be true. Emissions have increased during the first quarter of the year, according to Statistics Norway, partly due to the cold winter. Swedes fill up with more diesel than in the Environmental Protection Agency's scenario. Added to that are the effects of the tax cut on fuel from 1 July.
According to the Environmental Protection Agency's assessment, Sweden will miss both the short-term and the long-term climate goals with current policies.
The transports – the hardest nut
Domestic transport accounts for a third of Sweden's emissions and is a difficult political nut to crack, as it requires a phasing out of petrol and diesel. Previously, all parties in the Riksdag except SD agreed that increasing the mixing of biofuels in gasoline and diesel was the way to go, but when it contributed to high diesel prices in 2022, the right-wing parties promised to undo the decision - and implemented it after the change of power. At the same time, taxes on fossil fuels were lowered in several steps. Sweden has gone from having among the highest fuel prices in the EU to among the lowest, while emissions from domestic transport have increased. In 2025, they were 16 percent higher than when the government took office.
The government's own climate investigator has proposed measures that lead to fuel prices on a level with our neighboring countries in order for Sweden to meet the climate goal by 2030. L dismisses the proposal as "a dead end" and SD calls it "a red line".
The electric cars slowed down
When the government has been pressed about emissions from transport, the answer has been that the vehicle fleet should be electrified. In the last four years, however, electrification has also lost momentum. In 2022, Sweden was second in the Nordic electric car league – now Denmark, Finland and Iceland have passed Sweden, which has been pushed down to a jumbo place in the Nordics.
The reason for the slowdown is mainly that the government scrapped the previous electric car premium and that low fuel prices make fewer people buy electric cars. The electrification of heavy transport is also slow.
Since last year, electric car sales are increasing again and the government has introduced a new EU-funded electric car premium, but only for low-income earners in rural areas.
A curve pointing upwards is the number of charging posts. Nowadays, there are around 60,000 charging points in the country, almost twice as many as in Norway.
Industry emissions are decreasing
Within heavy industry, emissions continue to decrease, but this is not primarily due to decisions that have been made in Sweden, but to the EU's emissions trading system (ETS). For each ton emitted, industrial companies must purchase and account for an emission right. That makes it profitable to change.
The system came into place in 2005 and since then the emissions curve has pointed downwards. But the industry is still a big challenge – in Sweden, almost a third of the emissions come from here. Great hopes are attached to new fossil-free steel and cement production, but there some investments have been postponed to the future.
Now the EU Commission has proposed that the climate requirements on the industry be softened, following pressure from countries with large fossil-based electricity production. The Tidö government has fought back, with the Swedish business community behind it, because green industrial investments live dangerously if the price of emission allowances becomes too low.
Long waiting time for new nuclear power
The Tidö government's mantra in climate policy is electrification. A new goal has been set that the Swedish electricity system in 20 years should be able to meet a need twice as large as today. The focus has been on building new nuclear power through extensive government subsidies, but new reactors are not expected to be in place for ten years at the earliest.
In recent years, mainly solar and wind power have been added, but the new additions are mainly an effect of decisions made before the change of power in 2022. During the Tidö government, investments in solar and wind have stopped, according to the industry organization Green Power Sweden. Planned support for offshore wind power has been withdrawn, which has shattered the profitability calculations. Onshore wind power projects have increasingly been stopped by vetoes from the municipalities concerned. It remains to be seen whether it is affected by the new support to wind power municipalities that began to be paid out this year.
Lighting for the forest
Every year, the Swedish forest captures tens of tons of carbon dioxide through photosynthesis. It is sometimes used as an argument for Sweden being climate neutral, but that claim is misleading. Fossil fuels have been stored for millions of years in the ground, when they are burned new greenhouse gases are added to the atmosphere. When the forest captures carbon dioxide, however, it does not stay in the ground but mainly becomes products such as wood, paper or packaging. The carbon dioxide stored in the products is later released into the atmosphere again, in Sweden often through combustion in cogeneration plants.
