The Entropic Shift: Deconstructing the Transformation of the Global Order

The “profound changes unseen in a century” often mentioned by Xi Jinping are no longer merely abstract concepts found in books; they represent the systemic collapse and restructuring currently experienced by the global system.

For centuries, the world operated under a singular order – dominated by the West, characterized by linear development and a hegemonic steady state – which established fixed power structures, rules of engagement, and development paradigms. As we enter the second quarter of the 21st century, this long-standing old order has reached a critical juncture marked by runaway entropy, the collapse of paradigms, and a civilizational transition.

This entropic shift of order is essentially a global transitional state where the rules of the old system fail, its structures loosen, and its momentum wanes, while a new system undergoes pluralistic growth and iterative restructuring without yet having fully crystallized. Unlike the traditional restructuring of global patterns seen in historical dynastic changes or great-power rivalries, the core transformation of this ‘once-in-a-century’ shift is driven by the convergence of three forces: the fundamental reshaping of technology, the shifting of geopolitical centers of gravity, and the escalation of strategic competition to higher dimensions. Together, these forces are driving a comprehensive, systemic iteration of global politics, military affairs, economics, public opinion, and governance.

Adopting a holistic perspective, this article systematically deconstructs the core characteristics, underlying operational logic, and certain future evolutionary trends of this global entropic shift. Moving beyond the interpretation of fragmented events, it identifies the fundamental laws and ultimate trajectory of the transformation of the global landscape in this new era.

I. Six core characteristics of the entropic shift of order: The disintegration of the old steady state and the normalization of global pluralistic disorder

Current global geopolitical conflicts, economic fluctuations, technological rivalries, and public opinion polarization are, in essence, concrete manifestations of this entropic shift in order. The steady-state equilibrium established by the traditional Western-centric order has completely disintegrated. The global landscape now exhibits four core characteristics: intensifying headwinds, accelerating fragmentation, the resonance of risks, and the generalization of strategic competition. Uncertainty, asymmetry, and cross-domain transmission have become the new normal of the global landscape.

First, geopolitical power has undergone complete decentralization, and the absolute advantages once held by traditional major powers have fully eroded.

The geopolitical logic that prevailed for a century – where victory was determined by sheer national scale, military force, or resource endowment – has become completely obsolete; technological democratization has emerged as the core variable reshaping regional landscapes.

In the core geopolitical regions of Eurasia and the Middle East, the large-scale deployment of artificial intelligence, autonomous weapons, and intelligent reconnaissance systems has drastically lowered the threshold for war and deterrence, effectively erasing the military ‘generation gap’ that once separated traditional major powers. Europe’s security landscape has moved beyond the US monopoly; France and Germany are pursuing strategic autonomy, while Russia is leveraging intelligent hardware to challenge Western military hegemony, leading to a stratification and fragmentation of regional power. The Middle East has completely shed the old order defined by resource dominance and control by major powers; small and medium-sized states – and even non-state actors like the Houthis – can now exert asymmetric influence and disrupt regional shipping and geopolitics using low-cost intelligent equipment, causing the absolute control once held by major powers to steadily crumble.

Geopolitical power is no longer tethered to territory, troop numbers, or resource volume; instead, it is anchored in technological computing power, intelligent warfare capabilities, and the pace of technological iteration. Global geopolitical rivalry has entered a new phase where small nations can act as counterweights and non-state actors can disrupt the status quo.

Second, strategic deterrence systems have become stratified and diffuse, shifting global security risks from great-power confrontation to a state of uncontrolled volatility across all domains.

The ‘balance of terror’ established by the rigid US-Soviet bipolar nuclear standoff during the Cold War has collapsed, marking a paradigm shift in the global nuclear landscape; nuclear weapons have evolved from an ultimate deterrent for total mutual restraint into leverage for controlling regional dynamics.

Nuclear deterrence is now clearly stratified: Top-tier nuclear powers maintain a strategic last-resort capability while avoiding direct hot wars; mid-tier nuclear states rely on limited arsenals for regional self-preservation; and non-nuclear states seek security under the umbrella of major powers. Nuclear rivalry has become instrumentalized and normalized, serving as a standard tool for major powers to draw red lines and signal strategic intent.

Meanwhile, nuclear risks have become widespread; while the likelihood of direct nuclear confrontation between major powers has declined, risks associated with proliferation, technology leaks, algorithmic miscalculation, and covert regional nuclear maneuvering are rising. Compounded by the deep integration of intelligent weaponry and nuclear technology, global security governance has shifted from a model of great-power checks and balances to a complex challenge of managing risks that are multidimensional, covert, and pervasive across all domains.

Third, the global development landscape is shifting from West to East, and the Western-centric system that has prevailed for five centuries is unraveling.

The most historic transformation in this round of upheaval is the holistic shift of the global geopolitical, economic, and civilizational center of gravity from the Atlantic to the Eurasian landmass and Asia as a whole, fundamentally overturning the underlying structure of Western global dominance that has persisted for five centuries.

Economically, the interconnected development of Asian blocs – including China, ASEAN, India, and the Middle East – is accelerating the formation of a pan-Eurasian economic cycle; the era of Western dominance over global supply chains, trade rules, and economic orders is drawing to a close, while the Global South is gaining a powerful voice in development discourse. Regarding security, the security landscapes of Europe, the Middle East, and the Asia-Pacific are becoming deeply intertwined; the geopolitical value of the continental landmass is making a full comeback, while the reach and control of traditional maritime hegemony continue to wane.

In terms of civilization and governance, Asian concepts of diverse coexistence and mutually beneficial cooperation are countering the Western logic of zero-sum hegemony; the resurgence of diverse civilizations is breaking the Western monopoly on civilization, emerging multilateral mechanisms are gradually replacing traditional Western-led institutions, and the pluralistic nature of global governance is becoming increasingly distinct.

Fourth, the credibility of the hegemonic system has collapsed, and the Western-led global rules-based system has comprehensively failed.

Trump’s transactional ‘America First’ diplomacy served as the critical turning point that broke the back of American-style hegemony, definitively ending the era of absolute US unilateral global control. The foundations of US hegemony – built after World War II upon alliance systems, rule-setting dominance, and the provision of public goods – have been thoroughly dismantled; alliance credibility has been squandered, multilateral systems have eroded, and the globalized order has fractured, transforming the US from an order builder into an order destroyer.

Although the Biden administration briefly attempted remedial measures, these failed to restore US credibility. Global deficits in trust and institutional confidence regarding the US have become entrenched; unilateralism and protectionism run rampant, double standards in traditional international rules have become glaring, and global governance has fallen into a vacuum of entropic change – where old rules have failed but new ones have yet to be established.

Fifth, the dimension of state-level rivalry has undergone a comprehensive escalation, with the battle for perception and public opinion emerging as a core, invisible battlefield.

The proliferation of digital technology has fundamentally restructured the model of great-power competition, shifting the focus of rivalry from traditional physical confrontation to precision-targeted cognitive warfare. Technologies such as 5G, algorithmic recommendation, and big-data profiling have constructed an information ecosystem characterized by pervasive reach, the solidification of echo chambers, and emotional dominance.

Leveraging their long-standing monopoly on discourse, the US and the West continuously export polarizing narratives, manufacture bloc-based confrontations, and fracture social consensus in other nations. The digital era has dismantled the official barriers of traditional diplomacy; ordinary citizens and non-governmental entities have become pivotal nodes in the global strategic game, with public sentiment and perception directly influencing geopolitical dynamics and diplomatic decisions. Public opinion manipulation and the shaping of perceptions achieve the strategic goal of subduing the enemy without fighting, while cognitive polarization and public opinion divides have become major drivers of disorder in the global order.

Sixth, the key actors in the global economy and governance are undergoing a comprehensive transformation, completely shattering traditional monopolistic patterns.

In the economic sphere, the traditional globalization model – which prioritized efficiency above all – has become obsolete. Geopolitical conflicts, technological blockades, and investment barriers are forcing the global economy to shift toward a development logic that prioritizes resilience and regional self-containment; regional integration is replacing global integration as a core mechanism for hedging against risk, while emerging markets and the Global South have become key stabilizers of the global economy.

In the realm of governance, the effectiveness of traditional Western-dominated institutions – such as the UN, IMF, and World Bank – is steadily declining, whereas emerging multilateral platforms like the SCO, BRICS, and G20 are rising rapidly. Global conflict resolution models are shifting from Western-led coercive intervention to diverse, consultative, and cooperative governance. Simultaneously, the global influence of non-governmental forces and industry elites continues to grow, shifting the landscape of global governance actors from one dominated solely by sovereign states to a new pattern of coexistence among governments, international institutions, and non-governmental entities.

II. Four new operational logics of order reconstruction: A new-era strategic paradigm breaking free from Western conventions

The entropic shift in the global order signifies far more than mere turbulence; it represents a fundamental and disruptive transformation of the underlying logic governing global operations. Current global competition, cooperation, and conflict can no longer be explained by the outdated Western realist paradigms of hegemony through strength, zero-sum games, and victory through force.

A new operational logic – tailored to a multipolar, digital, and regionalized world – has taken shape, fundamentally rewriting the underlying rules governing the rise of major powers, regional development, and global governance.

First, the logic of core national power: A shift from dominance through sheer scale to victory through technology and resilience.

Traditional international competition was a contest of sheer scale – territorial size, military tonnage, and aggregate economic output – whereby major powers could leverage their massive size to establish hegemonic monopolies and exert unilateral dominance. In the current era of shifting order and entropy, however, the primary benchmarks for a nation’s core competitiveness have become technological computing power, the capacity for intelligent iteration, supply chain resilience, and the ability to withstand risks.

Intelligent weaponry is reshaping the military balance of power; digital technology governs the discourse on public opinion and perception; autonomous industrial chains hedge against the risks of geopolitical sanctions; and regional closed-loop economic systems buffer against global volatility. Small and medium-sized nations can achieve asymmetric checks and balances through breakthroughs in specific technologies. Conversely, without technological innovation and systemic resilience, a major power’s sheer size risks becoming an inefficient burden – a reality that fundamentally shatters the Western historical logic equating size with hegemony.

Secondly, the logic of great power rise: shifting from hegemonic succession to rule reshaping.

Centuries of Western historical narrative have entrenched a realist paradigm – that rising implies conflict, growing strength implies a bid for dominance, and hegemony inevitably changes hands. Indeed, all Western international relations theories are essentially distillations of the history of European colonial rivalry. Yet, the current restructuring of the global landscape has completely transcended the old trap of hegemonic cycles.

The rise of emerging powers – exemplified by China – eschews military expansion, the pursuit of hegemonic status, and bloc-based confrontation; instead, it achieves developmental breakthroughs through civilizational mutual learning, regional synergy, and mutually beneficial cooperation. At its peak, the Tang Dynasty accounted for 80% of Asia’s GDP, and Zheng He’s fleet was ten times the size of Columbus’; despite possessing such overwhelming strength, China never followed the Western path of colonial conquest or regional monopoly. This proves that strength does not equate to hegemony, nor does rising equate to conflict; an Eastern logic of symbiosis is replacing the Western logic of dominance-seeking, establishing a brand-new paradigm for the rise of great powers.

Thirdly, the logic of security and stability: shifting from external balancing to autonomous resilience.

Since the Cold War, global security has maintained a precarious equilibrium based on great-power standoffs, alliance entanglements, and the balancing of forces.