A third of Ceuta residents plan to leave the city after the migratory crisis of July
Quick Look
A survey by Sigma Dos for EL MUNDO reveals that 33.4% of Ceuta residents have considered leaving Ceuta after the massive entry of immigrants from Morocco at the end of July, with greater intention among young people and Vox voters, while 90.9% support the militarization of the border.
AI-generated summary
Why It Matters
The migration crisis in Ceuta broke out at the end of July when tens of thousands of people entered from Morocco, many swimming around the Tarajal breakwater, creating a situation of overload in services and a perception of insecurity among residents.
The improvised camps, the immigrants living poorly in the streets of Ceuta and a city on the edge that does not forget an image that went around the world: that of the massive entry from Morocco of tens of thousands of people, most of whom swam across the Tarajal border breakwater at the end of July. The impact of the crisis has been such for the residents of Ceuta that one in three has directly considered leaving the autonomous city, still unable to glimpse a scenario of normality.
It is one of the main conclusions of the Sigma Dos survey for EL MUNDO carried out just one month after the outbreak of the crisis, between August 26 and 31. According to the survey, 33.4% of Ceuta residents confess to having planned to leave their own city in the days after July 30. However, the figure - which reflects the state of concern in which the Ceuta population lives - is very different depending on the age groups. The reaction of young and old has nothing to do with it, in the same way that ideology or religion conditions the perception of the emergency.
If only 8.6% of those over 65 have thought about leaving Ceuta, the percentage skyrockets in the case of the youngest. Those aged 18 to 29 are the most likely to imagine themselves looking for a future away from Ceuta (51.7%), followed by those between 30 and 44 years old. Four in ten (41.1%) also say they have thought about leaving everything behind.
If the phenomenon is analyzed from a political perspective, those who cast the Vox ballot in the last elections are the ones who claim in greater proportion to have wanted to leave Ceuta. Almost half of this party's voters (43.8%) have considered it, a figure that falls to 14.8% in the case of socialist voters. On the contrary, doubt assails Catholics and Muslims alike. Those who declare themselves non-practicing Catholics are the ones who have also planned to leave the autonomous city the most (36.3%). Among Muslims, the percentage is similar (36%), but falls slightly to 28.4% among practicing Catholics.
That a third of those surveyed directly point out insecurity as the main problem in Ceuta after the uncontrolled entry of immigrants explains the data. Once again, the perception of insecurity skyrockets among Vox voters: this is indicated by 64.2%. And once again it is those over 65 years of age who least point to insecurity as the main problem.
The second most mentioned problem is the triumph of Morocco's hybrid war. This is the case for 13% of those surveyed, while 12.2% openly talk about the feeling of abandonment as a problem. What's more, when respondents are asked about the feeling that best explains their current state, almost half (48.1%) respond with indignation. Of course, 70.9% of those who see themselves close to Vox declare themselves outraged by the situation created, compared to 37.5% of the socialists.
outraged
Along the same lines, only 21.9% of Muslims say they feel outraged. However, 31.2% respond that they feel insecure. The roles are reversed for practicing Catholics: more than half are outraged and only 17.3% feel insecure. And a striking fact: positive feelings - although a minority among the neighbors - emerge in any case among Muslims. 13.9% are confident and 12.6% are hopeful.
But beyond the emotional issue, the survey reveals that the vast majority of Ceuta residents are in favor of the militarization of the border. Specifically, 90.9% consider necessary a measure that the president of Vox, Santiago Abascal, introduced into the public debate. Paradoxically, support is even greater among women, since militarization is supported by 96.1% of those surveyed, nine points higher than the support it garners among men.
What to Watch
AI outlook — possibilities, not facts
Measures to militarize the border in Ceuta will be approved in the coming months due to high citizen support
Likely · Within months
The emigration trend raised by young people from Ceuta continues if the perception of security is not improved
Possible · Within months
Open Questions
- What concrete measures will the government take to address the perception of neglect?
- How will the intention of young people to march affect the demographics of Ceuta in the long term?
- What response will Morocco give to accusations of hybrid war?






