Union gains in survey – Berlin left-wing alliance debate probably helps CDU and CSU

The Union made slight gains in a new survey, but remains well behind the AfD. In the current Sunday trend from the polling institute Insa for “Bild”, the CDU and CSU come to 19 percent. That is one percentage point more than the previous week.

For Chancellor and CDU leader Friedrich Merz, the slight increase comes shortly before important discussions within his party. On Sunday, the state chairmen of the CDU want to discuss the direction of government policy with Merz. The Union has been struggling with weak poll numbers for a long time.

According to Insa, the AfD remains clearly the strongest force. It reached 30 percent and was eleven percentage points ahead of the CDU and CSU. Their value has not changed compared to the previous week. The Greens are the third strongest force with an unchanged 14 percent.

The SPD, on the other hand, loses one percentage point and comes to 13 percent. The Left is still at ten percent. According to the numbers, the FDP and BSW would miss out on entering the Bundestag. The FDP achieved an unchanged four percent, the BSW lost one point and reached three percent.

The survey results at a glance:

AfD: 30 percent (±0 percentage points)

CDU/CSU: 19 percent (+1 percentage point)

Greens: 14 percent (±0 percentage points)

SPD: 13 percent (-1 percentage point)

Left: 10 percent (±0 percentage points)

FDP: 4 percent (±0 percentage points)

BSW: 3 percent (-1 percentage point)

Insa boss Hermann Binkert attributes the slight increase for the CDU and CSU to the political developments in Berlin. There the SPD is negotiating with the Left and the Greens.

"The majority of SPD voters reject a red-green-red alliance led by the Left Party. Since there is a large voter overlap between the SPD and the Union, SPD voters who do not like a Senate led by the Left will switch to the CDU/CSU," Binkert told "Bild".

However, the Union's slight gain initially does not change the difficult situation of the black-red federal government. Together, the CDU/CSU and SPD come to 32 percent in the survey. This would mean that the two government parties are well away from having their own parliamentary majority.

According to the current Insa figures, Black and Red would therefore have to rely on another partner. Together with the Greens, the Union and SPD would get 46 percent. Binkert currently sees such a three-party alliance as the most likely possibility for a government majority. “A Kenya coalition (CDU/CSU, Greens, SPD) would have a parliamentary majority of 46 percent and would currently be the most likely coalition option,” said the Insa boss.

The fact that, according to the polls, 46 percent of the vote would be enough for this is due to the performance of the smaller parties. A total of 14 percent of the votes go to parties that would fail at the five percent hurdle. “Majorities in the Bundestag are therefore possible with just over 43 percent of the votes,” explained Binkert.

In purely mathematical terms, the clearest majority of the constellations mentioned would achieve an alliance between the CDU/CSU and the AfD. Both parties together would get 49 percent. However, the Union categorically rules out such cooperation.

The Insa survey was conducted from October 5th to 9th, 2026 among 1207 respondents. The maximum error tolerance is given as plus/minus 2.9 percentage points.