US Faces Major Hurdle Replenishing Missile Stocks After Iran Conflict

The US faces a major hurdle replenishing key missile stocks after having burned through huge quantities of Tomahawks and Patriot interceptors during the Iran war, the Wall Street Journal reported on Sunday. According to the paper, the manufacturing push is coming “too late,” with the industry hollowed out by years of underinvestment.

The US fired more than 1,000 Tomahawk cruise missiles at Iranian targets, or around one-third of its prewar inventory, the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) estimated in late May, adding the stocks are expected to be replenished only by late 2030 or early 2031.

CSIS also estimated that Washington has used roughly half of its high-end Patriot interceptors, with the stockpile below 1,000 as of late July.

Faced with the shortage, defense contractors are spending billions of dollars on factories and expanded production capacity, but the investment has yet to translate into major gains, the Wall Street Journal reported, adding that the additional missiles will arrive too late to substantially improve US inventories in any conflict over the next several years.

“Ministers of defense have fat wallets – they walk into the shops, and there are empty shelves,” Rob Bauer, former chair of the NATO Military Committee, told the newspaper.

According to the WSJ, the issue precedes the Iran war. An Army Science Board study launched after the escalation of the Ukraine conflict in 2022 found that the US munitions industrial base had been hollowed out. “It’s a miracle that we have anything that blows up,” Mackenzie Eaglen, who helped coordinate the study, told the paper.

For instance, Pentagon orders for the Tucson, Arizona factory – a key facility producing Tomahawks – plunged so low that the line producing the missiles was at risk of being completely shut down. In August, the facility received a $23 billion seven-year Tomahawk order, but it took more than a year to negotiate the terms, and the final agreement is still pending congressional approval.

Washington has also awarded RTX a provisional $20.7 billion multiyear contract for AMRAAM medium-range missiles as part of the Pentagon’s “Arsenal of Freedom” initiative. RTX earlier said it has invested about $900 million in three missile production facilities over the past three years.

Earlier this year, the Pentagon also struck a $58.6 billion deal for Patriot interceptors with Lockheed Martin.

The Iran war has been a costly affair for the Pentagon, with a US Central Command estimate putting the overall expenditure at $43.6 billion as of early September, including $28.1 billion to replace expended ammunition. However, unnamed US officials told NBC in July that overall cost could be nearing $100 billion if damaged bases and destroyed aircraft are taken into account.