Diesel prices in the US have reached a record high of more than $6.50 per gallon - just before the midterm elections in November. This apparently makes US President Donald Trump nervous: He is now thinking about restrictions on diesel exports.
However, the move is controversial within the government. Energy Minister Chris Wright, for example, warns of the risks of a government-imposed export ban, as refineries would then reduce their processing. Instead, according to information from the Bloomberg news agency, he is trying to convince the refineries to voluntarily limit their exports.
How likely is a complete export ban?
Analysts do not consider a complete export ban to be the most likely scenario, but it is by no means ruled out. UBS oil expert Giovanni Staunovo puts the probability at less than 50 percent, but sees it as “close to a coin toss.”
Market participants are currently expecting limited export restrictions. “European diesel traders believe a partial export ban is more likely than a full ban,” writes Josh Michalowski, a European diesel market expert at price reporting agency Argus Media.
Arne Lohmann Rasmussen, chief analyst at Global Risk Management, believes a complete export ban is likely. Such a measure would be easy to sell to voters before the midterm elections.
How much diesel does Europe get from the USA?
In recent years, the USA has developed into one of Europe's most important diesel suppliers. According to Argus expert Michalowski, around a third of European diesel imports so far in 2026 came from the United States. This corresponds to around ten percent of the total European diesel supply. By August, the US share temporarily rose to around half of all European diesel imports.
According to Bloomberg, the United States recently exported almost two million barrels of diesel per day worldwide, more than ever before. According to Rasmussen of Global Risk Management, this corresponds to almost 20 percent of the global diesel trade by sea.
According to UBS oil analyst Staunovo, the most important buyers include Latin America, especially Brazil and Mexico, as well as Europe, especially the Netherlands and the United Kingdom.
Who are the most important diesel suppliers in Europe?
After the loss of large parts of Russian deliveries, Europe is increasingly dependent on the USA for imports, which is now considered the most important external supplier. In addition, producers from the Persian Gulf and Asia also play a central role in European supplies.
India has become particularly important. According to Bloomberg, the country is now the second largest exporter of diesel by sea and accounts for around ten percent of global maritime trade. India's Oil Minister Hardeep Puri recently emphasized that existing supply contracts should be fulfilled despite possible market disruptions.
Despite its need for imports, Europe itself is by no means completely dependent on supplies from outside: According to Argus Media, around 70 percent of the diesel required is produced in European refineries.
How much could diesel prices rise?
The discussion about possible US export restrictions has already had a major impact on the international diesel markets. According to Bloomberg, the European diesel crack spread, the price premium for diesel over Brent crude oil, rose to a record high of $95 to $100 per barrel. At the same time, ICE Gasoil futures temporarily climbed to more than $1,520 per ton.
Analysts see Europe in particular as a potential loser from a US export ban. According to Bloomberg, Morgan Stanley's team led by Martijn Rats warns that the region would suffer particularly badly from a lack of deliveries. European traders would then have to compete more intensively for alternative quantities from the Middle East or Asia and would find themselves in intense bidding competition with buyers from Africa and Asia.
“An export ban could drive international diesel prices well above the record highs already reached this year,” writes Sarah Raffoul, oil product analyst at Argus Media.
Already on Wednesday, after the first rumors of a US export ban emerged, the European gasoil contract gained seven percent. Jürgen Ziegner, managing director of the ZTG gas station association, estimates to Handelsblatt what such a price increase alone means for German drivers.
“The current seven percent on the Gasoil Future corresponds to around seven to nine cents per liter at the pump if passed on in full, including VAT,” he says. In an extreme scenario, i.e. a complete export ban, the wholesale diesel price could rise by around 70 percent. That's around 82 cents per liter, and even 98 cents with VAT.
“But that would really be an extreme variant,” he emphasizes. “I personally think 15 to 20 cents per liter is likely if a ban is actually imposed but for a limited time.”
Is diesel becoming scarce at German gas stations?
Experts like Michalowski from Argus Media do not expect a supply bottleneck at German gas stations, as Europe produces a large part of its own diesel. According to Bloomberg, the EU Commission currently sees no signs of a physical shortage of diesel.
Ziegner also considers a bottleneck to be unlikely. Local bottlenecks are possible at times, however, as the transport situation remains tense given the low water level in the Rhine.
Why is the situation with diesel more tense than with crude oil?
The diesel market is affected by two geopolitical crises. In Russia, refinery throughput is around 2.3 million barrels per day below seasonal levels following ongoing Ukrainian drone attacks, according to data from Goldman Sachs, prompting Moscow to ban diesel exports.
And in the Middle East, exports of refined oil products plunged 60 percent in August compared to prewar levels, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA). Since refined fuels are usually transported on smaller ships, which are at higher risk of attack and are more difficult to charter, logistics have become extremely expensive, which is why producers and traders are primarily switching to crude oil.
