The US President allows the import of Russian diesel to bring down prices. But at least three out of four expected tankers turn away because potential buyers fear problems.
“Agioi Fanendes”: The Maltese-flagged tanker has Russian diesel on board.
Dusseldorf. Several tankers carrying hundreds of thousands of liters of Russian diesel that were previously on their way to the USA have apparently changed their plans. At least three of the four known freighters are no longer on their way to the US Atlantic coast. This is shown by position data from ship tracking platforms. This means that US President Donald Trump's diesel deal with Moscow is in danger of fizzling out.
At the end of October, several ships set off from the Russian Baltic Sea coast towards the Atlantic. Observers have identified at least four freighters and are closely tracking their journey via several tracking services. Three out of four ships are on multiple sanctions lists:
“Talisman” (Russian flag): sanctioned by the USA, EU, Great Britain, Canada and Switzerland
“Beast” (Seychelles): sanctioned by the EU, Great Britain, Australia, Canada and Switzerland
“Leruo” (Sierra Leone): sanctioned by the EU, Great Britain, Canada and Switzerland
“Agioi Fanendes” (Malta): not sanctioned
According to position data, the “Agioi Fanendes” is still on the way towards the USA. However, the tanker sends the message “For Orders” from the North Atlantic via the tracking transmitter instead of specifying a specific destination port. This could mean that the ship is actually waiting for a new buyer for the diesel on board. However, the crews themselves control this information manually, so it is not necessarily considered reliable information.
The “Talisman”, a ship belonging to the Russian state shipping company Sovcomflot, left its course to the west several days ago and is currently in the Mediterranean north of Tunisia.
The remaining ships have turned south: the “Beast” also reports “For Orders”, the “Leruo” reports “Brazil For Orders”. The routes of both tankers indicate that they are now heading for South America instead of the USA.
Democrats write threatening letters to companies
Even if a ship carrying Russian diesel reached the United States, it is far from certain what could happen next. In a surprising about-face at the beginning of October, Trump announced that Russian President Vladimir Putin had promised him the delivery of several million barrels of diesel by the end of the year.
But Democratic officials in particular are trying everything to prevent actual stops at US ports. For example, New Jersey Governor Mikie Sherrill wrote a letter this week to operators of terminals and ports in the New York area, warning them of severe penalties if they allow Russian diesel to land.
The actual legal situation is unclear. But that is apparently reason enough for US companies not to want to have anything to do with Russian deliveries. “Some companies do not want to be associated with the shipments because of the reputational risks,” the “Financial Times” quoted Claire McCleskey, partner at a compliance consultancy in the USA.
Through a Treasury Department order at Trump's behest, US sanctions on Russian diesel have been suspended until April 2027. In addition to the hope of lower prices in the USA, the step was also seen as a symbol to Moscow, with which Washington wanted to signal that it was willing to negotiate regarding the Ukraine war.
The criticism from Kyiv was correspondingly harsh. Revenues from the export of oil, gas and fuel are considered an important source of financing for Russian warfare in Ukraine. “I am confident that this will have a positive effect on the entire global economy,” said Putin, commenting on the deal.
However, market experts do not expect the agreement to have a significant impact on the world market - the quantities alone are far too small for that. The combined load of the four ships would cover only a fraction of the daily US diesel needs.
Export ban instead of Russian imports?
In addition, according to observers, there is no question of a diesel shortage in the USA. Because the country also exports diesel to the world market, prices in the country depend on global developments. Attacks in the wars in Ukraine and the Gulf have reduced refinery capacity, and the price of crude oil remains high.
So far, Trump has not been able to bring himself to impose export restrictions, probably due to pressure from energy companies who earn billions due to the high prices. With an export ban threat, he forced the release of state diesel reserves in the G7 countries. The effect on prices is still manageable. At $6.25 per gallon of diesel, the price for Americans is still close to the record price of $6.52 from September. Diesel is still almost twice as expensive as it was a year ago.
The high prices may also have contributed to the Republicans' significant defeat in the midterm elections. According to surveys, many US citizens blame the Iran war and Trump personally for the comparatively high inflation and made their voting decision with the rising cost of living in mind.
Regardless of whether Russian diesel still reaches the USA or not: According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), the diesel shortage is likely to last well into 2027. Although the IEA expects global refinery production to recover towards the end of 2026, this will not be enough to compensate for the deficit created this year.
