Verisk Maplecroft warns of rising civil unrest risk due to food security threats in Asia
Quick Look
Verisk Maplecroft reports that over half of high-risk countries on its Food Security Index also rank high on its Civil Unrest Index, citing severe weather disruptions and the war in Iran as compounding threats to food supplies in Asia, with India, Indonesia, and the Philippines identified as particularly vulnerable to food inflation-driven unrest.
AI-generated summary
Why It Matters
Verisk Maplecroft's Food Security Index and Civil Unrest Index are predictive tools used to assess global risks. The report links declining food security to heightened civil unrest risk, particularly when compounded by external shocks like war and extreme weather.
Over half of countries at high risk on Verisk Maplecroft’s Food Security Index also sit at the top of its predictive Civil Unrest Index
Severe weather disruptions will amplify food security risks in Asia, potentially triggering civil unrest and political instability in vulnerable countries such as India, Indonesia and the Philippines, according to consultancy Verisk Maplecroft.
The warning comes as the war in Iran has already disrupted fuel and fertiliser supplies, both of which are key agricultural inputs. Now, weather extremes linked to a powerful El Nino are further threatening crops across the region.
Indonesia, the world’s biggest palm oil producer, is suffering from a rash of hard-to-control wildfires that have disrupted harvests. The monsoon rains that top rice exporter India relies on are running 15 per cent below normal, and Thailand’s sugar harvest is set to sink.
The twin threats of war and weather are driving up food inflation – an established trigger for unrest, the risk consultancy said in a report released on Thursday.
What to Watch
AI outlook — possibilities, not facts
Food inflation will rise in India, Indonesia, and the Philippines due to disrupted harvests and supply chains.
Likely · Within months
Civil unrest risk will increase in vulnerable Asian countries as food inflation rises.
Possible · Within months
Open Questions
- What specific policy responses are recommended by Verisk Maplecroft to mitigate these risks?
- How might regional cooperation affect the outlook for food security and stability in Southeast Asia?
- What is the projected timeline for the El Nino's impact on agricultural yields in the region?
