Historic victory for the AfD in the regional elections in Saxony-Anhalt

This is an unprecedented political shock. The far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) party came in first position during regional elections in Saxony-Anhalt (Germany) on Sunday, September 6, according to almost final results. With 43.8% of the votes, the party far outdistances the CDU of Chancellor Friedrich Merz (17.2%). Followed by the social democrats of the SPD (9.3%), the Greens (8.9%), and the radical left party Die Linke (8.6%). With 5.3%, the Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW) barely exceeds the 5% needed to enter the Land Parliament.

This victory is the result of an in-depth campaign led by the political party, helped by the popularity of its leader, Ulrich Siegmund. The telegenic 35-year-old candidate's teams have increased campaign events and meetings with residents of the Land of 2.2 million inhabitants, rolling out a far-right program. Promises to put an end to the “decline” of East German territory, particularly targeting refugees and sexual minorities, hit the mark with part of the electorate. If it came to power, the AfD would have great room for maneuver over education and culture, managed by the German regions.

The AfD's score is "a major upheaval", Valérie Dubslaff, teacher-researcher at Rennes 2 University, explains to franceinfo. In the previous elections, the party obtained a little less than 23%. “We have written history in this country,” said Ulrich Siegmund on ARD. “We need fundamental political change in this country,” he added.

Chancellor Merz put in difficulty

Such progress by the far right, even on a regional scale alone, sends “a very strong signal” to the government, explains Valérie Dubslaff. A serious setback, which "shows a need to change course" and "better communicate" for the coalition in power in Berlin. As The Guardian recalls, Friedrich Merz promised, in 2018, to halve the AfD's score. “He campaigned saying that he would be able to win back the far-right electorate, but we are observing the opposite,” continues the researcher. “The longer he is in power, the more the AfD rises. His right-wing strategy is not working.”

In Saxony-Anhalt and elsewhere in eastern Germany, the far-right movement has managed to feed on the feeling of decline and downgrading that runs through these less favored regions. The conservative chancellor, officially appointed in May 2025, is struggling to convince in the face of this resentment. Only 16% of Germans have a positive opinion of their leader, according to a YouGov poll published in July.

In the region, the majority of AfD voters surveyed say they want to show the government they are dissatisfied. Their vote nevertheless becomes more and more a vote of adhesion.

Several pitfalls explain this share of contestation in the vote. Friedrich Merz "is not a particularly positive or charismatic character, while Ulrich Siegmund communicates very well, with a smile and an engaging demeanor. He is very appreciated", observes Valérie Dubslaff. Could his success on Sunday evening shake the German leader? The impact on federal policy is “difficult to predict” at this stage, tempers the academic. “There are demands within the CDU, also from the SPD, to replace” the chancellor, continues Jeanette Süß, political analyst on Franco-German relations at the French Institute of International Relations (Ifri).

The rise of the AfD in Saxony-Anhalt also affects another member of the government coalition: the Social Democratic Party, from which Friedrich Merz's predecessor, Olaf Scholz, came. At the federal level, he is now credited with 12% of voting intentions, according to Politico. A paltry score for a once dominant party.

“The AfD has never been so openly extremist”

Ulrich Siegmund's score is closely observed by the federal executives of the AfD, given on average 28% in the federal elections, according to the poll aggregator Politico. “The Land is really a laboratory for the AfD,” underlines Anna-Sophie Heinze, professor at Leuphana University in Lüneburg (Germany). “They observed very closely the way their candidate campaigned and will take inspiration from it elsewhere.” The regional elections in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania on September 20 are a test for the political formation, given around 35% in voting intentions. The result also shows that a very radical political platform is not prohibitive for voters.

"The AfD has achieved the feat of gradually radicalizing itself. Initially, it was a party of Eurosceptics, then the more radical wings took power. Today, we can say that it is a party of Nazi inspiration."

“The AfD has never been so openly extremist,” adds Anna-Sophie Heinze, “the exact opposite of what far-right parties are doing to win votes in Europe.” Enough to interest movements sharing the same convictions in the rest of the Old Continent. “It’s a message of normalization sent to the rest of European countries,” adds Valérie Dubslaff.

In the absence of an absolute majority, the AfD may not be able to govern Saxony-Anhalt. Only the radical left and conservative BSW left the door open for an alliance, without formalizing support. The rest of the parties ruled out allying with Ulrich Siegmund's troops. Even in opposition, the AfD "will have significant nuisance power over Land politics", warns Valérie Dubslaff: "It will be able to block constitutional changes, and will have even more resources which will finance its propaganda machine. It would also have more speaking time and media presence."

Enough to convince new voters, but also to make other parties think about their strategy and their political choices. “For the moment, no one has found the recipe to slow down the rise of the AfD,” observes the researcher. The “sanitary cordon” defended by the entire German political class, excluding AfD, still holds. Until when?