Germany: Friedrich Merz in turmoil after the historic triumph of the AfD in Saxony-Anhalt

In Germany, Friedrich Merz is in turmoil. The chancellor will have to explain this Monday on the electoral triumph of the anti-immigration and pro-Russian AfD party in Saxony-Anhalt. This election places the far right in a favorable position to lead a German region for the first time since 1945.

Since coming to power in May 2025, the conservative leader has had one series of disappointments. However, he had promised to curb the rise of the AfD, which became the second force in the country in last year's legislative elections.

A historic snub for the CDU

Friedrich Merz pursued a liberal economic policy and reduced immigration. But in the end, the far right, led by the charismatic Ulrich Siegmund, inflicted a historic snub on the chancellor's party, the CDU, beating it with 44% of the vote against less than 18%. The big winner was ironic on Sunday by describing Friedrich Merz as “a very good electoral campaign agent for the AfD”.

According to projections from German public broadcasting, the AfD (Alternative for Germany) is short of three seats in the regional parliament to reach an absolute majority of 42 seats. It would then be a question of poaching a few elected officials from other parties or of forming alliances, with the BSW, a small pro-Russian left-wing formation, in the position of kingmaker.

This result constitutes an earthquake, as the culture of contrition for the crimes of Nazism remains deeply anchored in Germany. A figure in the German Jewish community, Charlotte Knobloch, said in horror: “Even in my worst nightmares, I could not have imagined that the far right could win elections in Germany again like this.”

Sluggish growth, inflation and the Russian threat

Like the rest of the political class, the CDU excludes any alliance with the AfD. But Ulrich Siegmund and the head of the AfD nationally, Alice Weidel, spoke of their “outstretched hand” on Sunday evening. This Monday, Friedrich Merz will return to his party leadership to analyze the defeat, before speaking to the press. And the only way for the CDU to continue to govern Saxony-Anhalt would be an improbable alliance with all the other parties, including the far left.