Typhoon Qiangbi's path "Westward vs. Northward turn" Scholars point out the key to the difference in the pattern on the day of introduction

Typhoon Qiangbi continues to strengthen and gain weight. At its peak, the storm radius is estimated to be 300 kilometers. However, whether it will land in Taiwan depends on different models in different countries. Among them, the my country Meteorological Administration predicts that Qianbi may start to turn north near Ishigaki Island, but the Japanese model predicts that it will move westward and land in Taiwan. In this regard, experts and scholars explained that the movement of typhoons is mainly guided by high pressure in the Pacific. The difference in predicted strength of high pressure will affect the path. The path is expected to be clearer in the next two days.

The Meteorological Administration predicts that because the Pacific high pressure weakens faster than expected, Qiangbi is expected to start turning north near Ishigaki Island, and the intensity will be about the lower limit of a strong platform or the upper limit of a moderate platform as it approaches Taiwan. It does not rule out the possibility of issuing a coast warning as early as Wednesday night or Thursday daytime, and a land warning from Thursday night to Friday daytime. The warning range will still be mainly in the northern and eastern half, and the warning range will depend on the path of the typhoon.

The Meteorological Administration emphasized that there are still differences in the paths of various countries. It is possible that the path will turn northwest, north-northwest or even north, and there are still differences in the distance from Taiwan. In any case, Friday and Saturday will have the greatest impact, with high chances of rainfall in various places. Pay attention to local heavy rain or torrential rain in the north and Yilan during these two days. Hualien on Friday and central areas on Saturday should also pay attention to local heavy rain or torrential rain.

Why are there differences in the estimated paths between Taiwan and Japan? Lin Deen, a meteorological expert with a doctorate in atmospheric science at National Taiwan University, analyzed that the main difference lies in the two countries' predictions of the westward rise of the subtropical high on Wednesday and Thursday. Japan believes that the subtropical high will still be very strong during these two days, so it will block the north of the typhoon, so that it can only move northwest and west and land in Taiwan. Taiwan's model is "the opposite", believing that the subtropical high will retreat slightly eastward, so the northward component will be larger, and it will be revised northward. There is still uncertainty in the later period of the forecast, and the path is expected to be clearer in the next two days.

Wu Derong, an adjunct associate professor at the Department of Atmospheric Science of National Central University, emphasized that the farther the typhoon forecast time is, the greater the error. Although the line on the forecast map turns north, the larger the red box range is in the later stages, indicating that there is still uncertainty. The red box range still covers most of Taiwan, that is, the probability of landing and passing through the sea northeast of Taiwan is possible, and continuous observation is required.

Wu Derong pointed out that current computer simulation models in various countries predict that the typhoon is far away from Taiwan and will make landfall; typhoons are guided by the Pacific high pressure. When the Pacific high pressure is strong, the typhoon will move westward, the intensity of the Pacific high pressure will weaken, and the northerly force will be greater. The difference between Taiwan and Japan's models is mainly related to the difference in simulated Pacific high pressure strength. The Meteorological Administration also uses different models to simulate, and the follow-up will be clearer.