Wadephul meets Lavrov in New York: Germany calls for de-escalation, Russia accuses militarism

The encounter only lasted 20 minutes. Johann Wadephul's meeting with Sergei Lavrov on Saturday morning was the most important after a long week at the United Nations in New York with dozens of bilateral talks. Delegation circles later said that Wadephul had called on Moscow to “leave the dangerous path of escalation against Germany, Europe and NATO.” Incidents such as the attempted attack in Leipzig or further hybrid attacks would not shake Germany's resolve to support Kiev. However, they would further harm the bilateral relationship with Berlin, which Russia has already seriously damaged.

There was a small gesture. At least that. The two ministers, who met with a small delegation in a negotiating room in the UN building, shook hands in greeting. After the conversation, Lavrov stood up and walked around the table to Wadephul to shake his hand once again.

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Russian games

During the meeting, Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova announced that the German side had prayed for the conversation during the UN general debate. Such games are part of the Foreign Minister's long-time confidante. Lavrov had signaled a willingness to talk through third countries, whereupon Wadephul decided to agree.

In fact, the German Foreign Minister had been considering taking the step for a long time, after all, the Europeans are trying to get their foot back in the door of the Ukraine negotiations, which, after Donald Trump's return to the White House, were entirely on the Americans' side. After the incident at Leipzig Airport at the beginning of August, for which the federal government blames the Russian military intelligence service GRU, the need for discussions became more urgent. Wadephul wanted to wait for the state elections in East Germany. So the time window in New York presented itself.

The expectations before the first direct encounter were low. Wadephul is under no illusions. In his conversation with Lavrov, he made it clear: the regrettable state of relations is not in Germany's interest. The possibility of returning to a constructive relationship exists at any time. This presupposes an end to the war that violates international law. Unfortunately, such a sincere willingness to compromise is not evident on the Russian side. Kyiv has declared its willingness to negotiate “countless times”. Berlin stands ready to continue to support this path.

Lavrov deals against Berlin

The Russian Foreign Minister answered in his own way. After the meeting, he went to the general assembly to deliver his speech in the general debate, in which he accused Germany of “militarism” and “revanchism,” which is why Russia was against a permanent seat for Berlin on the UN Security Council.

He then went one step further in a subsequent press conference: Several European states had embarked on the path of “neo-Nazism”. This is particularly worrying in the case of Germany. Of course, Lavrov does not have the Russia-friendly AfD in mind, but rather those parties from the democratic center that support Kiev militarily and re-strengthen the Bundeswehr.

When asked how he had responded to Wadephul's demand for de-escalation, he initially remarked, somewhat patronizingly, that he had been happy to comply with the German request for talks. Wadephul is the seventh German foreign minister that the Russian chief diplomat has dealt with since 2004. And Lavrov is very good at treating his counterpart like a trainee. He then mentions the “abandoned drone” and laments the German reaction, particularly the closure of the Russian consulate in Bonn. The German side knows very well that not only consular officials worked there, but also diplomats who worked in the international organizations on the Rhine. As a host country, Germany has committed itself to enabling member states to work in the organizations.

At the beginning of the week, Lavrov also met US Secretary of State Marco Rubio, who announced that Trump was inviting Vladimir Putin to the G-20 summit in Miami in December. This surprised and irritated some in the West: Was this another sign that the president was ready to let Kiev fall again? Wadephul has a different interpretation; after all, Volodymyr Zelensky has called on Putin to negotiate - but not in Moscow, as the Russian ruler wants. And Miami, where the Ukrainian president will also be, is a good opportunity.

In his speech in the general debate on Saturday, Wadephul also called on Russia to finally come to the negotiating table. “I call on all member states to join us in convincing Russia that the future will be shaped at the negotiating table – and not on the corpses in towns and villages.” The day when talks finally begin will be a good day for the United Nations.

The reason for the CIA director's trip to Moscow

The interpretation that Trump's invitation to Putin should in no way be understood as a renewed departure from Kiev is also based on findings about the real reason for CIA Director John Ratcliffe's trip to Moscow at the end of August. A short time later, various readings circulated. It was once said that Ratcliffe wanted to warn his interlocutor against expanding the war to NATO countries in view of the incident in Leipzig. Putin should not test the Western alliance. Another time it was said that Trump had realized that he could not make any progress on the Ukraine issue with his special advisor Steve Witkoff and his son-in-law Jared Kushner and was now relying on the head of his foreign intelligence service.

A senior diplomat who is familiar with the CIA's briefing of Western partner services as a result of the trip now told the F.A.Z. that the real reason for the Moscow visit was different. Ratcliffe conveyed the findings of American intelligence services to Moscow. And the loud one: Russia is losing the war. It's not so much about the front in Donbass or the Ukrainian drone war, which has now reached Moscow. Militarily it amounts to a stalemate. But Russia cannot make it economically. The economy will collapse, like in the Soviet Union at the end of the Cold War. Combined with this message was the clarification that American Ukraine policy was based on this finding. So Putin shouldn't rely on Trump dropping Zelensky at some point. That is why the American demand is: “Negotiate!”

People in Warsaw may also have been informed about Ratcliffe's journey. In any case, what was striking was what Polish Foreign Minister Radoslaw Sikorski, already known for his clear language, said in the Security Council on Tuesday: Moscow has been trying to take Donbass for twelve years, and Kiev for more than four years. Russia was stopped by a heroic Ukraine, a country with a tenth of Russia's economic output. Europe has an economic output ten times larger than Russia - and that of the NATO countries is even 25 times larger. Then: Russia could still kill a lot of people, but it couldn't win.

However, there are serious doubts among German diplomats that Putin will appear in Florida in December. Perhaps the Kremlin ruler's calculation is that he will still achieve military advantages this winter so that he will be in a better negotiating position afterwards.