The initial situation
There are still around three months until the next big election in Germany: a decision will be made on the successor to Federal President Frank-Walter Steinmeier on January 30, 2027. He is not allowed to run again after two terms in office. That much is clear so far.
It is still unclear who the parties will send into the race. At the beginning of the year, Chancellor Friedrich Merz, CDU, announced that after the state elections in September, he would make a joint proposal for Steinmeier's successor together with the party leaders of the CSU and SPD. A month after the state elections, this decision is still pending.
The CSU has already presented a proposal; it remains to be seen whether the CDU will send its own candidate into the race. The SPD in particular attaches great importance to the office being held by a woman for the first time.
Proposals for candidates can be submitted by any member of the Federal Assembly. In practice, however, the parties represented in the Federal Assembly agree on candidates in advance and only these are then proposed. A party that does not have a representative or delegate in the Federal Assembly has no opportunity to propose anyone.
The Union, which has significantly more members in the Federal Assembly than the SPD, has the unofficial right to propose candidates within the coalition. Since the SPD already has Steinmeier as the Federal President, it is, in a sense, not their turn.
Who does the CSU propose?
The CSU is campaigning for the President of the Bavarian State Parliament, Ilse Aigner, as the joint candidate of the governing parties. Aigner has been talked about as Steinmeier's successor for months; the 61-year-old former Federal Agriculture Minister would be the first woman to hold the office of German head of state.
CSU boss Markus Söder said in the report from Berlin: Never in 75 years has the CSU provided the Federal Chancellor or the Federal President. "Actually, you can argue that we're a little bit closer now."
But there are also doubts about Söder's intentions. According to observers, Söder has not given up his ambitions for the chancellorship. If a CSU politician were to become Federal President, that could also ruin his chance of becoming Chancellor. Two CSU politicians at the head of the state are considered unlikely.
What does the CDU want?
The big sister party, the CDU, is still keeping a low profile. Federal Chancellor and CDU leader Friedrich Merz is currently allowing the debate to run without making any decisions of his own. Behind the scenes we hear that the Chancellor is under pressure in his party and that is why the position cannot go to the CSU.
In some parts of the CDU there are calls for a candidacy from within their own ranks. Three CDU politicians, Karin Prien, Julia Klöckner and Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer, are also in discussion. Hesse's Prime Minister Boris Rhein was also mentioned.
According to executive committee member Wiebke Winter, the CDU still needs time. "This office is so important. We have to take the time we need," she said on Deutschlandfunk. What has not yet been off the table is whether the party will send its own candidate into the race.
Who does the SPD prefer?
The SPD does not have its own candidate in the race. But there is sympathy for Aigner in the party. The SPD parliamentary group leader Matthias Miersch described Aigner as a “convinced democrat who shows a clear stance against right-wing extremism and resolutely stands up for our democratic values.” In coalition negotiations, the CSU politician was a reliable, constructive and fair negotiating partner. Bremen's mayor Andreas Bovenschulte also spoke out in favor of Aigner in the report from Berlin.
A petition with more than 160,000 signatures suggests comedian and author Hape Kerkeling as a candidate. In a conversation with Spiegel, the 61-year-old said that he did not want to stop the idea of making a queer person head of state. Although the petition will probably not be successful, it could initiate a discussion that is good for the free society.
Suggestions could also come from the opposition parties in the Bundestag. But there are no definitions yet. In the 2022 election, the AfD (Max Otte), the Left (Gerhard Trabert) and the Free Voters (Stefanie Gebauer) each sent their own candidates into the race.
Who elects the Federal President?
The election of the Federal President is the responsibility of the Federal Assembly. As the largest parliamentary assembly, it only has this task and usually meets every five years for this purpose. The Federal Assembly is composed of all members of the Bundestag and an equal number of members who are elected and sent by the state parliaments ("elected members").
The state delegates are mostly members of the state parliament, but also local politicians or public figures such as artists, athletes or scientists. At the last election in 2022, the then national coach Hansi Flick, the virologist Christian Drosten and pop singer Roland Kaiser were there.
The Federal Assembly meets for the election no later than 30 days before the end of the Federal President's term of office.
How is the Federal Assembly composed?
This is not entirely certain yet because there may still be minor changes in the election of state representatives. It can already be said with certainty that the CDU/CSU and SPD will together have the absolute majority of the seats. The CDU/CSU are the largest group in the Federal Assembly, followed by the AfD and the Greens.
The 18th Federal Assembly, which is called for election on January 30th, has 1,260 seats - 630 members of the Bundestag and 630 members appointed by the state parliaments.
An absolute majority of at least 631 votes is required for the first and second rounds. In a third round of voting, a simple (relative) majority would be sufficient.
