What to expect from the Ukraine talks in Abu Dhabi

For the first time in eight months, Ukraine and Russia are negotiating directly to end the war. US-mediated talks between Russia and Ukraine have begun in Abu Dhabi in the United Arab Emirates. US President Donald Trump had raised expectations that he was on the verge of a breakthrough by making statements about an imminent “big, beautiful agreement”. However, observers do not expect this. But at least people are talking to each other again.

Who is attending the meeting?

Chief negotiator Rustem Umjerov is there for Ukraine, and President Vladimir Putin's envoy for Russia, Vladimir Medinsky. Trump's special envoy Steve Witkoff and his son-in-law Jared Kushner are expected to take part from the USA.

Representatives from European countries - including Germany - as well as from the EU and NATO are also there in Abu Dhabi. But it is unclear whether they will only talk to the Ukrainian delegation or whether they will also take part directly in the talks between Kiev, Moscow and Washington. According to Kushner, the "European partners" are only informed peripherally; a broader format with European participation should only follow when "progress is made."

Why are negotiations happening again now?

Negotiations were originally supposed to continue in March. However, the war against Iran started by Trump captured Washington's attention - Witkoff and Kushner held talks with Tehran.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyj wanted to schedule the meeting in Abu Dhabi earlier. The pressure for negotiations had recently increased for his country: On the one hand, because of the slump in grain exports due to the sea ports blocked by Russia. But above all because of the devastating Russian attacks on energy facilities.

What does Ukraine want to achieve?

Security guarantees, a ceasefire in the Black Sea and, above all, an end to attacks on the country's electricity, water and heat supplies. After massive Russian air strikes, millions of Ukrainians are currently living in outside temperatures around freezing point - and winter has only just begun.

Kiev also wants to address the return of abducted children from the occupied territories and further prisoner exchanges - these have already taken place several times in the past.

And: The talks are intended to help prepare a summit with Putin that President Zelenskyj is aiming for. From Kiev's point of view, a ceasefire is necessary for this, only then can the territorial issues of particular importance to Moscow be discussed.

What does Russia expect from the talks?

Russia continues to strive for a larger European security order that goes beyond Ukraine. This includes the neighboring country not wanting to join NATO. Moscow continues to call for “demilitarization” of Ukraine.

It is also important for Russia to clarify the territorial issues, which from the Russian perspective includes a Ukrainian withdrawal from the parts still held in Donetsk in the Donbass. A U.S. official said Russia and Ukraine were both showing some behind-the-scenes flexibility on a possible territorial swap.

Only after all the questions have been clarified is a Russian ceasefire and a summit meeting between Zelensky and Putin possible.

What interest does the USA have?

President Trump is following through on his campaign promise to end the war within 24 hours. Despite mediation efforts, no breakthrough has been achieved so far.

Before the negotiations began, Trump spoke of an agreement that was supposedly about to be signed and that "could affect all of Europe." Both sides were tired of fighting, he claimed. "We also see a very strong willingness to end the war between Russia and Ukraine."

One of Washington's goals is to keep Russia out of China's sphere of influence. Moscow should be made more willing to compromise by restoring economic relations.

What role do Europeans play?

Russia and the USA would prefer to negotiate on Ukraine alone. After Trump's announcement of the agreement, which "could affect all of Europe," alarm bells rang. French Foreign Minister Jean-Noël Barrot said there could be no talks with Russia on European security until a ceasefire was agreed and peace was established. Federal Foreign Minister Johann Wadephul also said that it was not possible to find a solution to the war without Europe.

Before the negotiations in Abu Dhabi, the issue of who should be Europe's official negotiator came up again. Italy's Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni had called for a binding decision "once and for all". Otherwise, Europe would risk becoming irrelevant in the negotiation process.

What can we expect from the talks?

Zelensky's law firm boss, Kyrylo Budanov, expressed "cautious optimism" but does not expect a breakthrough. What is particularly realistic is a partial ceasefire for sea attacks, which not only Turkey has been calling for for months, because the Black Sea is now one of the most dangerous maritime regions in the world. Ukraine and Russia are both interested in resuming grain exports.

When it comes to the important point after a ceasefire around the Ukrainian energy facilities, the situation is more unclear: Moscow is relying on the attacks as a means of pressure in the winter, while Kiev is relying on drone attacks on Russian refineries in order to create a fuel shortage there and cut off Moscow's war machine's income.

As a gesture of goodwill, another prisoner exchange could be agreed upon at the end of the talks.