Economic research institutes present autumn reports: Moderate growth due to defense spending

The leading economic research institutes will present their autumn report in Berlin on Thursday. According to SPIEGEL information, they expect moderate growth, which will be driven primarily by high spending on defense and armaments. The institutes are assuming 1.3 percent for the current year 2026 and 1.1 percent for the coming year. In 2028, however, only an increase of 0.4 percent can be expected.

In the spring, the institutes had only expected gross domestic product to grow by 0.6 percent in 2026 due to the effects of the Iran war. They had expected growth of 0.9 percent for the coming year.

People in the federal government should be relieved that the economy is now picking up more strongly than expected. At the same time, however, the forecast decline in growth in 2028 also means narrower scope for the federal budget, which will still have large gaps in the coming years.

The so-called joint diagnosis is prepared by the German Institute for Economic Research (DIW), the Ifo Institute, the Kiel Institute for the World Economy, the Leibniz Institute for Economic Research Halle (IWH) and the RWI - the Leibniz Institute for Economic Research Essen.

The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) is currently expecting a slightly slower economic recovery in Germany. In its latest economic outlook, the Industrialized Nations Organization forecast growth of 1.1 percent for this year - 0.4 percentage points more than its June forecast. The OECD also expects an increase of 1.1 percent for the coming year. However, the outlook remains subject to considerable uncertainty due to the conflict in the Middle East.